He Said, He Said

This past week’s big news from Spring Training seems to be more about predictions than actual baseball played. If you haven’t heard, there have been verbal exchanges between 2007 NL MVP Jimmy Rollins and New York Met Carlos Beltran (not to mention in the latest news that Atlanta Brave Chipper Jones has gotten involved as well). My intention is to provide the comments made by these players, and compare it to the numbers and statistical outcomes we can expect this upcoming year.

Jimmy Rollins began this debacle when he first stated before the 07 season the following information:

“Do we have a good team? Yes. Do you think we're the team to beat in the East? Yes. Because of the excitement of the changes and the people (pitchers Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton among others) brought in this winter, that's how I feel. I think everybody else feels that way, but (we) just weren't saying it.”-Rollins

Rollins backed up his talk with stellar play elevating his career to a new level, and earning the MVP. However, not everyone took kindly to Rollins’s statements, and there was a response from inner division rivals.

Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets felt it was his place to step up as a vocal leader and criticize Rollins’s statements from a year ago in conjunction with Rollins’s statements about 08. Beltran had these words to say:

“Let me tell you this: Without Santana, we felt as a team we have a chance to win in our division. With him now, I have no doubt that we're going to win in our division. I have no doubt in that.”

“We've got what it takes. We have good chemistry as a team. He fits great because he's a great guy. He's one of the best pitchers in the game. Who doesn't want to have him on any ballclub? Without him last year we did good, until the end of the season. So this year, to Jimmy Rollins, we are the team to beat” –Beltran

Beltran is essentially calling Rollins out for predicting that the Phillies are still the team to beat in the NL East. Rollins didn’t degrade New York or Beltran as some would have expected, but rather responded by saying the following:

“The pressure is back on them, if you ask me," Rollins said. "They were on paper the best team in the division last year and were supposed to win and didn't so they're going to be out there trying to prove what happened last year was a fluke, that it's not going to happen again . . . The spotlight is not on us. New York is always supposed to be better than any other city in baseball - the fans expect that and the media expects that, so the team is going to feel the same way. So they're already under the microscope. You go out there and struggle, you'll hear it.”-Rollins

What it really comes down to is who has the point here, or whether or not we care. I think it was appropriate for Beltran to step up and become a vocal leader for the Mets. I don’t think you will ever find a player on a team that barely missed the playoffs the year before, and only improved in the off-season say that they don’t think they are the team to beat. Was it fair to attack Rollins, and single him out, probably not?

Statistically, these predictions are somewhat difficult to evaluate because we aren’t sure what difference the effect the acquisitions that these ball clubs made in the off-season will have on the 08 season. But hey, everybody loves a prediction.

Offensively:

New York Mets- The Mets ended the 07 campaign as the 10^th highest scoring team in the MLB with 804 runs. Their team OPS was .775 which is formidable considering they play a handful of games in a Pitcher’s park. Furthermore, they have a solid core of two young players in David Wright and Jose Reyes who seem to be improving each year. However, they do have some players who history would show may start to digress offensively in 08. Carlos Delgado has been bothered by injuries, and took a large step back in 07. Carlos Beltran has also been bothered by injuries, and if he plans to make statements similar to Rollins’s, he better elevate his game like Jimmy did. Schneider behind the plate is also an offensive downgrade from LoDuca, and Castillo as 2^nd surely holds some question marks.

Philadelphia Phillies- The Phillies were the 2^nd highest scoring team in the MLB posting 892 runs over the 162 games season. Their team OPS was a solid .812 for the season and .37 points higher than the Mets. What makes the Phillies the more likely team to maintain their offensive production is the fact that they play in an absolute bandbox of a stadium coupled with the notion that the core of their lineup is young and improving. Three of their four most productive players (Rollins, Utley, and Howard) are all under the age of 30, and another productive player, Pat Burrell is in a contract year. Coupled with the development of players such as Carlos Ruiz and Shane Victorino, Philadelphia looks poised to repeat as the NL leader in total offense.

Edge: Philles are more likely to repeat their 07 campaign and prove their status as a superior offense to the Mets

Defensively:

New York Mets: While there are plenty of statistics that can assist in analyzing defensive value I will keep it to a brief explanation. The Mets finished 07 ranked 18^th in the league with a .983 fielding percentage. As this statistic would show, they are a mediocre fielding team at best. The left side of their infield is solid, but the right side of their infield is horrible. Castillo and Delgado are one of the worst 1B/2B fielding tandems in the league. Beltran is a Gold-Glove CF when he is healthy and Alou and Church aren’t terrible at their positions. Schneider behind the plate is a definitive upgrade defensively over LoDuca. I think the Mets will see their errors shrink some, but I doubt that they will be able to crack the top 10 in fielding percentage in 08.

Philadelphia Phillies: Something I had no clue regarding was that the Phillies aren’t too bad of a fielding team. They ranked ties for 3^rd in 07 with a .986 fielding percentage. I knew they had a solid core up the middle with Ruiz, Rollins, Utley, and Rowand, but I was surprised to see them so high. The departure of Rowand means that Victorino will step in at the CF position which seems to be neither an upgrade or a loss. The addition of Pedro Feliz, who should have won the Gold Glove in 07 at 3B should only improve their ability to defend. Furthermore, Ryan Howard’s defensive progression should continue to improve at 1B.

Edge: There is no doubt the Phillies have a superior edge in this department.

Pitching:

New York Mets: The Mets certainly made the biggest splash this off-season in that department acquiring the greatest pitcher on this planet. He will provide the ultimate stability and dominance this rotation is lacking. They ranked 12^th in the league with a 3.26 ERA, and opponents batted .255 against them. This number should improve with Santana taking the ball for 200+ innings. However, the other pieces of this puzzle are somewhat questionable. Maine and Perez are wildcard in that they certainly performed higher than their statistical backgrounds have shown in the past. Pedro is and can be dominant, but he is coming off a surgery and we all know he is not the fire-baller he once was. With Orlando Hernandez bringing up the rear, this rotation needs to cross its fingers and pray nobody gets hurt. If I were Minaya I would consider acquiring another starter that could provide some depth in the case of injury. The bullpen will be solid, and you know you can expect Wagner to close down games for you.

Philadelphia Phillies: I am not a believer in anything they have going in Philly regarding pitching. They finished last year 23^rd in the league with a 4.73 ERA and opponents batted a solid .276 off of them. They haven’t added a single starter, except that the acquisition of Brad Lidge allowed Brett Myers to re-enter the rotation. Cole Hamels, the declared Ace, has amazing stuff, but his injury history is a large concern. Myers was sidelined last year with an awkward looking shoulder injury. Kyle Kendrick seemed to defy statistical odds, and actually posted good numbers. Moyer and Eaton do not belong in a contender’s rotation as far as I am concerned. The bull-pen is also sketchy in that Lidge still has suffered as a closer since the Albert Pujols incident. Gordon is washed up, and comes with an injury every year. They need to add some pitching depth because past Carlos Corrasco, their minor league system doesn’t have much promising youth.

Edge: Although both teams come with some serious risk, the New York Mets are anchored by one of the game’s greatest pitchers, and there is no arguing that they looked more poised to outperform Philadelphia’s staff in 08.

Conclusion: As far as I can tell, the Phillies still appear to be the better team. Their stars are in their primes, and they added some solid pieces to their puzzle this past year. They lack the frontline starter that the Mets certainly got in Johan Santana, but their offense should be able to bail some of the poor pitching performances their staff will turn in next season.According to my calculation they clearly are a better offensive and defensive team, while the edge in pitching goes to the Mets. I think the Mets are a solid team, and arguably one of the best in baseball, but Beltran called out the wrong team. Lastly, in the words of Jimmy Rollins:

“I guess two things come to mind," Rollins said. "One, there are four other teams in our division who are going to make sure [the Mets winning the division] doesn't happen. And two, has anyone ever heard of plagiarism?”

Links for more to read:

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20080221_Phillies_-_Phillies_Rollins_talks_fashion__style_and_plagiarism.html

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/columnist/bodley/2007-02-23-bodley-rollins_x.htm

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2008/02/17/2008-02-17_with_johan_santana_carlos_beltran_tells_.html