The MLBeat

Thank You

2009-03-08T12:59:00.000-07:00

I just wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be posting on the MLBeat for awhile. I received a position with the Seattle Mariners, and it is standard policy in the industry to not freelance or blog while working for an organization.

I want to thank everyone for their support, it is much appreciated. The MLBeat couldn't have become what it was without avid readers and supporters and I am forever grateful for your visits to the site.

If the MLBeat is to resurface in the future, I will certainly make sure to inform the you. Once again, thank you for your support.

Cheers,

Ross Fenstermaker (aka The Juice)

Personal Top 50 Prospects

2009-02-25T10:24:00.000-08:00

Every year you will see most major publications produce a list of the future stars of the game. I know every year I read it, I disagreed greatly with the lists. Sometimes I was right, and sometimes I was wrong. One thing I will warn is that I tend to go against the grain of popular thought. I do my own scouting, and I value others opinions, but in the end it is a gut feeling based on my playing experience and research that I use to differentiate between similar players.

(Note: My list values the potential for stardom over the certainty of reaching that ceiling. I would much rather have a potential star than a more certain MLB regular. There is value in both players, but personally I hold more value in superstars)

1. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles (Notice the spacing. It is because Wieters is truly in a league of his own)
...

2. David Price, LHP, Rays

3. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves (Keith Law
ranked him 3rd as well, but I sent Keith an email over a year ago telling him Heyward would be top 5 and he completely blew me off. Thanks Keith!)

4. Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays

5. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals

6. Buster Posey, C, Giants

7. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals (Like I did with Heyward, I am not afraid to anoint one of the best hitters I have ever seen early in their career. I foresee regular 35 HR seasons from Hosmer, and I would love to see the Royals try him in RF because he is athletic enough to handle it)

8. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Braves

9. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles (People have no clue how dominant he can be, and he is amazingly polished. I expect a positive contribution by mid year in the Majors)

10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B/OF, Pirates

11. Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins (As told by a trusted source: "He was the best hitter in the FSL, and it wasn't even close." Follow that with his AFL performance, and you get a true testament to his potential)

12. Trevor Cahill, RHP, Athletics

13. Rick Porcello, RHP, Tigers (K numbers were low, but source said he could do whatever he wanted with the ball. Hard to argue against that report)

14. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers

15. Lars Anderson, 1B, Red Sox

16. Mike Moustakas, 3B/OF/C?, Royals (Easily top 5 if he would move to C, and prove he could handle the position adequately defensively. The bat is something special.

17. Brett Wallace, 3B, Cardinals

18. Carlos Triunfel SS/2B, Mariners (I question the body for SS, but would still remain an elite prospect because of his bat at 2B)

19. Carlos Santana, C, Indians

20. Josh Vitters, 3b, Chicago

21. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers (About as low as you will see him, but I don't care who tells you otherwise, he is still raw. Pitchers with plus FB's will always get extra hyped, and I believe in the talent, but I need to see more consistency from his other offerings)

22. Tim Beckham, SS, Rays

23. Gordon Beckham, SS, White Sox

24. Tim Alderson, RHP, Giants (Alderson before Bumgarner? Yes. Give me a 19 year old in the CAL who dominated with his plus fastball command and plus curveball. Watch out for a rocket up prospect lists in 09)

25. Brett Anderson, LHP, Athletics

26. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets

27. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers

28. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants (See Feliz, Neftali. I need to see another solid season from Bumgarner in which he improves his offspeed offerings. His maturity has also been a question as he had requested to remain near his South Carolina home for his first pro season)

29. Matt Laporta, OF/1B, Indians

30. Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies

>
31. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
32. Cameron Maybin, OF, Marlins
> There is something about these two outfielders that I don't like. High K rates. Maybin has done nothing to improve on those rates, and while both have astonishing tools I will take the youth and power potential of Stanton because he at least has an opportunity to improve on his high strikeout rates

33. Chris Tillman, RHP, Orioles

34. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona (I wouldn't be surprised to see Parker make a huge jump next year, but I need another season of injury free ball to assess his potential)

35. Angel Villalona, 1B, Giants (If he keeps the weight in check, 40 HR power is not out of reach)

36. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays (Took a step backwards this year, but I am still a big fan)

37. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers

38. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Marlins

39. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates (I know he has been rushed, but there is something I just don't like as much as most others)

40. Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins

41. Jesus Montero, 1B, Yankees (He can't stay
behind the plate, but regardless, the bat is something special)

42. Jason Donald, SS, Phillies

43. Michael Ynoa, RHP, Athletics (The spelling of his name is about as mysterious as his potential. Scouts are anointing expectations unheralded for this Latin product)

44. Austin Jackson, OF, Yankees

45. Freddie Freeman, 1B/OF, Braves (Athletic enough to move to the OF where his bat would surely profile at the corners. I remain somewhat worried about his long swing as it could lead to high K rates)

46. Jordan Schafer, OF, Braves (HGH behind him, stellar 2nd half numbers. The potential is still there)

47. Matt Latos, RHP, Padres (Straight fuzz coming from that arm)

48. Matt Gamel, 3B, Brewers (If he could play 3B his value would rocket up, but he can't, and I don't know that he could be a solid OF so his ranking is singularly a testament to his stellar bat)

49. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds

50. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers (Sleeper for 09. Huge potential in a young Latin frame)

----

* I know I left off someone that shot up ranking lists this year, but I will explicitly state that I have zero faith in him to repeat his 08 performance. I think Derek Holland is overrated and is set for a huge regression in 09 based on expectations.

I strongly urge you to leave a comment in the comments section for any of the rankings you feel I was out of line with.

The Best GM in Baseball: VORP and Salary Correlation

2009-02-22T20:18:00.000-08:00

Trying to determine who the best GM in baseball is an extremely difficult task. Most polls you see regarding this question typically highlight major market teams such as the Yankees (Cashman), Red Sox (Epstein), Mets (Minaya), White Sox (Williams), so on and so forth (I'm sure you get the picture). Sometimes the little guy in Oakland (Beane) gets his recognition too. There are plenty of factors to consider in analysis, and a lot are immeasurable. This piece is meant as a basis for interesting discussion, and in no way should be used as an assessment of GM success.

The following list will rank each organization, in order from the lowest score to the highest by the following formula:

Hitter Team VORP (2006-2008 seasons) + Pitcher Team VORP (2006-2008 seasons) /
[(Total Team Salary (2006-2008 seasons)/1,000,000)].

*The goal is to provide an equation that produces the avg dollar spent by team per value point of VORP.

I know this formula has a lot of inefficiencies. I understand that defense is left out of the equation, the amateur draft is an afterthought, and the other intricacies associated with running the front office are left out of the equation. Once again, I want to point out that this isn't my solution to the answer, but rather a different way to look at an interesting question with tangible statistics to back it up. I have never seen this before, it took me months to finally complete, and I want to share it with you.

30) NYY: 2.51
29) SEA: 2.66
28) BAL: 3.01
27) CHW: 3.04
26) KC: 3.14
25) SFG: 3.45
24) ANA: 3.66
23) BOS: 3.72
22) HOU: 3.79
21) DET: 3.92
20) CHC: 4.01
19) NYM: 4.05
19) STL: 4.05
17) LAD: 4.09
16) WAS: 4.38
16) ATL: 4.38
14) TEX: 4.54
13) CIN: 4.64
12) OAK: 5.04
11) PHI: 5.15
10) TOR: 5.18
9) PIT: 5.24
8) MIL: 5.38
7) SDP: 5.63
6) ARI: 5.98
5) MIN: 6.18
4) CLE: 6.29
3) COL: 7.22
2) TBR: 7.96
1) FLA: 15.39

Definitely some interesting data there to digest. My initial thought was, "Wow, this formula favors low spending teams much greater than large budged teams." But then I got to thinking: what can a large market team learn from a smaller market team under these circumstances?

It seems this evidence parallels the direction most organizations are going: heavy emphasis on cheap, young, controllable talent that can compete at the Major League level. Teams such as the Rays and Rockies, 2 of the top 3, have both seen action in the World Series over the 2006-2008 time span. The Marlins, #1 most efficient by far, are perennial contenders that always seems to maximize their dollar use.

On the contrary, lets look at the last three World Series winners of the era: St Louis, Boston, and Philadelphia. None of the champions were inside the Top 10 as far as their efficiency ratings were concerned. However, their total VORP were some of the most substantial in their championship seasons, but their high payrolls canceled out a higher score.

This also shows how the free agent compensation pattern needed a market correction like we have seen in 09. Typically, your large market teams such as NYY, BOS, STL, LAD, ANA, NYM, DET, etc have the ability to pay for these players, but they are "overpaying." The dollar per production scale is skewed because their salaries artificially inflate the expectations of comparable players.

So what does all this information mean, and why did I spend about a month working on it? For me it is simple: I have believed for quite some time that successfully run organizations will view their players as commodities on an openly traded market. It is imperative to analyze the peripheral numbers and value before making an investment, selling, etc in any such commodity. The stock market uses an efficient called P/E which is defined as Price to Earnings. I would like to see the same statistic used in baseball except P/E stand for Price to Expectations.

If all teams would do this, and commit 100%, there would be no gripes about a salary cap because all teams would be able to afford relative talent. In researching this, I added empirical evidence to my longstanding belief that if you maximize dollar allocation by spending efficiently, there is no reason why you can't compete with the overspenders of the industry. Smart organizations understand that, and they should be positioned well to continue battling Total VORP production by maximizing their VORP per dollar spent efficiency strategy.

$18.35 Million? Come on Bud

2009-02-21T12:09:00.000-08:00

Aside from the steroid scandal, another travesty in baseball has occurred. According to the MLB Commissioners office, the Commissioner of baseball, Bud Selig, received compensation for the 08 fiscal year at $18.35 million dollars...say it slowly, 18.35 million dollars. To put that into perspective, only nine players in all of baseball have a higher yearly salary than the commissioner. Ouch.

If you aren't blown away by the sheer magnitude of the dollar amount, maybe this can put things into perspective. In a year where the American economy is in a recession and suffering one of the worst economic periods in decades, with the stock market falling nearly 4,000 points or roughly 32% the past year, Bud Selig decided to take a 22% salary increase from the previous year. I guess $15.06 million wasn't enough so he bumped it up a cool $3 million. Oh Bud.

It is imperative to analyze things from both perspectives. Bud has done some good, and he has done some bad. I've attempted to give a taste of those actions below. Dissect at your own risk.

Good:
- The popularity of baseball has steadily risen over the last 3 years
- The total attendance of Major League baseball hit all time attendance highs in 07 and 08 at 79,502,524 and 78,624,324 respectively
- There has been an influx of lucrative television deals that have generated huge margins thanks to revenue sharing
- Created a labor agreement that runs through 2011 and guarantees that baseball will go 16 years, the longest time frame ever in the collective bargaining era, without a lockout
- Made massive "attempts" to clean up the game during a steroid and performance enhancing riddled era

Bad:
- Has taken a large amount of credit for the game's success while not shouldering any blame for the bad, including the "steroid era"
- His massive "attempts" to clean up the game have actually hindered its progress by destroying the game's heroes, wasting taxpayer money, and circumventing a negative swirl around America's favorite pastime
- Recently told the public he was "ashamed" of Alex Rodriguez, one of the game's most prominent players and now wants to reappoint Henry Aaron as the "Home Run King"
- Attempted to end the World Series on a rain shortened game, and planned the circumstances horrendously
- Changed the once entertaining exhibition known as the All Star game into an unnecessary one game competition for home field advantage in the World Series (ridiculous)
- Attempted to once "call" an All Star game because it was getting past his bedtime
- Shall I say more?

Selig deserves some credit for his efforts in the game as he is one of the driving forces behind the game's successes, and its rise in popularity. What I don't like about Bud is that he is too quick to take the credit and often likely to redirect the negatives.

It is my belief that a large part of the game's success and popularity can be attributed to the growing access and availability brought by technology. The game of baseball is incredibly deep, and provides a lot of niches for people who enjoy sports. The growing blog world, access to team websites, and numerous outlets for discussion have enabled fans to stay in touch with their teams 24/7/365. There has never been an era where a fan can easily access the latest trade rumors on their team, get detailed information on the next wave of talent, read the latest headlines, and get some respectable industry analysis. The internet has provided an abundance of reading material that has enabled the fan to sift through hoards of disposable information quickly and efficiently. I have always believed that a greater access to education will spark an increased interest, regardless of your subject. Baseball is no exception.

I love the game of baseball, and the opportunities it provides to those interested. It's hard to write this article because I am so incredibly grateful for the game's success. My concern is that we don't allow success to lead to stagnation. We cannot be satisfied with the current level of accomplishment, but rather continue to drive the popularity of today's game. Because of this I find it necessary to point out fallacies of the game, including Selig's ludicrous compensation. In a time where American families are struggling to keep their jobs, homes, and lives together, its disgusting to see such an influential piece of our culture promoting this type of behavior. We give America's banking system hell for their large bonuses, why should Selig's exorbitant salary be any different?

This is a reality check for the MLB. When you continue to send your brass to Capitol Hill to destroy our game's heroes wasting our tax dollars remember one thing: you are not perfect. If you continue with this type of deplorable behavior you are walking a fine line. You do not want to upset the growing number of fans in baseball. The power of one fan to make change is strong, but the power of 79 million fans is unstoppable.

A-Rod's Admission: Only a Matter of Time

2009-02-09T12:12:00.000-08:00

What do you make of A-Rod finally admitting that he indeed used performance enhancing drugs during his career? If you are a journalist, you stop the presses and write a story about how detrimental this is to the game. However, if you are a small time blogger who already believed he used in the first place you say "so what, and who is next?"

If you have followed my posts since the sites inception you know how I feel about PED's. I'm on the side of the table that believes it is idiotic to promote a witch hunt to attempt to bring down some of the game's most influential players. Buster Olney has a piece up this morning, and while he has been around the game for years, and can sometimes have an old school mindset, his sentiment is much appreciated. Olney writes:

"I've thought all along that in order to pick and choose and guess about who used and who didn't use, a Hall of Fame voter would get twisted in a logic pretzel. The best and easiest solution remains this: You can either vote for no one from the steroids era, or you can set aside the question of who used and who didn't use and simply vote for the best players of the era, knowing that it was an industry-wide problem and that all parties in the sport contributed, in one way or another, to the rampant use of performance-enhancing drugs."

To agree with Buster anymore is impossible. How can you expect to rationally filter out who used and who did not? But if you take it one step further, would it really matter anyway? Fundamentalists arguing against steroid usage claim these players were "cheaters" and don't deserve a position in the Hall. Realists know that pinpointing every player is impossible and a waste of time.

Here is my rebuttal in real world terms; imagine going to work at your day job, putting in your 40-50 hours a week. Your co-worker, not more than 5 cubicles down approaches you in confidentiality about this new substance people are taking that improves your ability to focus and maintain your level of production throughout each and every day. The substance is illegal, but your company has no formal policy banning this substance. You run the risk of breaking federal law, but you will not compromise your position with your company. What do you do?

If you are like most people you set up a risk/reward analytical approach to the situation. You probably think, "Wow, a substance that could help me get that promotion, and potentially increase my salary exponentially. I know it is illegal, but the government rarely cracks down on it, and if taken properly the side effects are minimal if any at all."

So you take it. It helps your sustain your focus, and actually works for you. You pass your peers in the workplace, earn the promotion and now are making a salary far greater than you ever imagined. However, years later, all is not peachy. Your co-workers cry foul because "they" put in their hard work without any "extra help." They want the substance banned, and everyone who took it to be punished. Is that fair?

America promotes a capitalistic atmosphere where risk can lead to great reward. These players were taking a risk by breaking federal law, but people break laws all the time, and sometimes they are punished and sometimes they are not. Do you think Allen Iverson will be left out of the Basketball Hall of Fame because he smokes Marijuana and has had numerous run-ins with the law? I will take the bet he makes it in.

So can someone please explain to me how it is fair, in an era where steroid and PED use was rampant, to punish the games best players? Everybody had the opportunity to take the same risks these players did, and I GUARANTEE, that many of them did. Is it these players faults that they were inherently better than the others to begin with? I don't think so. It's Darwinism at its finest: only the strong survive, and Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Mcwire, Roger Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro were some of the best players of their era regardless of any substance that could ever have taken.

MLB and the government are defending this "witch hunt" on the basis that cleaning up the game would improve the popularity of the sport. However, destroying the image of some of the game's most prominent players will not popularize the game, it will polarize it. People need individuals stars in their sports, and uncovering these stars dirty pasts is tarnishing the game's heroes. It is hard to fathom but in all reality, sports fans do not really want to know everyone the government can prove used PED's because I'm confident the results would be shocking.

Final stance: I don't believe that taking steroids is OK. I will never argue whether or not these drugs actually improve performance because the evidence is inconclusive. What I will argue is that we are entering Buster Olney's "logic pretzel." I want baseball to continue its popularity rise. I want the game to go global. I support the Commissioner Office's attempts to do all of this, but I do not think that tarnishing our heroes images is, or ever will be, a successful tactic.

Price Not Lowe Enough

2009-01-18T20:06:00.000-08:00

This past week, the Atlanta Braves agreed to terms with Free Agent Pitcher Derek Lowe. The contact runs at 4 years and $60 million. As far as we have learned it is a straight deal at $15 million per year.

Derek Lowe is certainly an above average pitcher, but for different reasons than what many consider a front of the rotation starter. He is not dominant, as his value is largely tied to his ability to sink his fastball racking up easy groundball outs while eating innings. He has been quite consistent over the course of his career, pitching less than 199 innings as a full-time starter only once. Sometimes that consistency can be seen as a negative due to arm wear, but is important to note that Lowe began his starting career at age 29, thus resulting in slightly less than 2,000 career Major League innings (about 2,700 combined Majors and Minors). While I spin this in a positive light, I believe the Braves still overpaid for his services.

Long term deals for pitchers are historically risky, but the track record of success for pitchers over the age of 35 is even less impressive. Lowe's ability to pitch to contact should help limit strain, and thus risk, but there is no arguing with how the body tends to break down at that age. He will never miss many bats, as evidenced by no season that exceeds 7K's/9 as a starter, but he has an uncanny knack to get the job done. Pitchers like that worry me because they are so reliant on their supporting cast.

Lowe is a groundball pitcher, and while Atlanta provides excellent Defense at SS in Escobar and 1B in Kotchman, an aging Chipper Jones at 3B, and a mediocre fielding Kelly Johnson at 2nd provide a definitive defensive liability. Atlanta's defense is not All-Star caliber, and that may prove to be a surprise to his production.

Fangraphs attempts to put a value on all of Lowe's seasons, and over the last 3 years he has been roughly worth $17 million per year. I don't know if I necessarily agree with that, but I think he has been a relative bargain compared to his contract. I'd peg his value in an Atlanta rotation in 09 and 2010 at about +3 wins compared to any viable replacement, which is slightly expensive at a little over $5 million per win. I wouldn't be surprised to see his "added wins" decrease by 1/2 run each following season. For comparable value, baseball prospectus PECOTA system has Lowe's WARP value at 3.6, 2.5, 1.9, and 1.7 over the course of the contract.

At $16 million a year, Atlanta is hoping that Lowe maintains and/or exceeds the level of production he has averaged over the past 3 years. That is a lot to ask of a 36 year old pitcher, regardless of track record. The Braves are paying out of "need" rather than making a more economical decision, and it could hamper them in the future. Lowe will most likely slot in as the new #1, which pushes him into a role he has never fully experienced. I anticipate his peripheral stats will be solid in 09, and possibly 10, but Braves fans may be disappointed with a lack of wins as he slots up against some of the game's best pitchers.

Bottom Line: The Braves needed another Starting Pitcher that was dependable and above average. Lowe has proven in the past he is that guy, but history tells us 36 year old pitchers tend to age poorly as their careers decline. I have a problem committing $60 million dollars to that type of question mark. He will hold value regardless of age, because he is going to pitch a full load of innings, but the risk that those innings aren't productive in years 3 and 4 of the contact is much too high. I think the Braves overpaid for Lowe, and his signing will be graded as average when re-examined in 2012.

Great Read

2009-01-09T12:24:00.000-08:00

Came across a great article today by Shawn Hoffman examining the Salary Cap in baseball. I believe it is for Baseball Prospectus subscribers only, but if you can read it, I recommend you take the 5 minutes to do so. The article can be found here.

Burrell a Ray

2009-01-05T12:37:00.000-08:00

Pat Burrell recently agreed to a 2-year $16 million dollar contract to play for the Tampa Bay Rays. My initial reaction: WOW.

Here I go again with my emphasis of OBP, but it becomes even more important as we dissect the state of the Rays organization. Filled with talented defensive outfielders, Burrell has been plucked from free agency to star at the ever controversial DH position in Tampa. As a fielder Burrell is atrocious, but as a hitter he is extremely consistent and productive.

Burrell has been good for a career .367 OBP which is certainly above average. His overall struggles seem highlighted against RHP, but he absolutely murders LHP. Since he won't be playing the field, his horrible footspeed, and range in Left Field will be unimportant, while his offensive talents are highlighted. The last 4 seasons, Burrell has posted seasons with an OPS+ of 128, 122, 127, 125. Tampa has only committed 2 years of control, so Burrell will be theirs during peak years at age 31 and 32. Because of that, they should be able to expect a similar offensive performance in 2009 and 2010.

I may be in the minority when I say that I actually expect Burrell's numbers to improve as he switches to a much more difficult league in the AL. I believe the statistically oriented staff of the Rays will maximize Burrell's opportunity to succeed by utilizing him against LHP, and giving him a break against difficult RHP. In 08 Burrell ripped LHP to the tune of a .279/.406/.545 line. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Burrell produce a line of .265/.390/.510 as a full-time DH in Tampa.

The blogworld seems quite optimistic about the prospect of Burrell joining the Rays. Dan Szymborski at baseballthinkfactory.com has Burrell coming in at a .251/.376/.477 Marcel's projection has Burrell coming in at .250/.371/.483, while Bill James has him at .253/.377/.490, all respective assessments. My favorite statistical site, BaseballProspectus and their PECOTA system have Burrell at .256/.387/.501 in 09. They also expect him to be worth about 3.0 Win Above Replacement Player so he most likely is worth about 2 Wins to any of the in-house options the Rays had. As Keith Law points out here, $4 million per win ain't a bad thing on the open market.

Bottom line: Burrell seems incredibly cheap at $8 million per season for his age 31 and 32 seasons. Another important note is that the Ruben Amaro regime failed to offer Pat the Bat arbitration so he will not cost the Rays a draft pick as compensation for signing him. For a team like the Rays that operate on a budget, this allows them to continue their commitment to developing amateur players while filling Major League holes with excellent temporary holders. I may be a bit more optimistic than others on Burrell, but I think a full-time DH role will help maximize Burrell's offensive talents, thus making him an incredibly valuable piece to repeating the Ray's 08 magic in an immensely competitive division.

Money Talks: Teixeira a Yankee

2008-12-27T14:05:00.000-08:00

For fans of 29 other teams, you are probably sitting at home hating the Yankees for the financial muscle. How does a team in a global recession proceed to spend nearly half a billion dollars on three players in one offseason? Well, the new stadium will help revenue, the YES network is a cash cow, and the Yankee label is the most popular, and profitable franchise in all of sports. What is spent now will surely be made back, right?

I can't necessarily argue against that because I am not a global economist with an emphasis in Sports Franchise spending. However, I can assess this particular move by the Yankees, and I must admit: Although a huge emphasis was placed on Starting Pitching, the Yankees absolutely needed Mark Teixeira in a major way.

Teixeira is one of the games most prolific hitters. Over the course of his career he has reached base at an average of 40%. If you read my Holliday trade assessment, you understand the emphasis I place on OBP. It is one of the most valuable and transferable skills a player can possess, and Mark Teixeira is one of the best in the business.

From a statistical standpoint, Teixeira represents a huge upgrade over the Yankees 1B of last year, Jason Giambi. If you combine Teixeira's seasons between ATL and ANA you get a player good for about 10 Wins Above Replacement level. The Giambino's 08 season was worthy of about 4.5 Wins Above Replacement Level. All things aside you are looking at about a 5.5 Win increase at the position, but Mark Teixeira's value goes further.

Teixeira is widely considered one of the best fielders at his position. If the Gold Glove Awards were truly an accurate assessment of player fielding performance, which instead they more closely resemble an extension of the Silver Slugger Award, Teixeira and Albert Pujols would be your 1-2 year in and year out. He is an excellent fielder who provides stability at a position often overlooked for defensive purposes.

So what is the downside? Some critics may argue that Teixeira has never won. The teams that have given up top prospects to get him: Atlanta 07, and Anaheim 08 didn't succeed in their attempts to acquire the type of slugger that propels an offense to a championship. My response: Teixeira did exactly what he was acquired to do; perform. The teams didn't win because the supporting cast was not strong enough. I don't buy into chemistry as much as others do. I want the best players at the best positions, and Teixeira represents that.

What about the contract? The Yankees forked over $180 million for 8 years. The contract is straight forward, paid out in two years of $20 million followed by six years of $22.5 million. As crazy as it may sound, Teixeira at $20 million could be a relative bargain in comparison to his expected performance. The Yankees will be getting him during his prime MLB years (Age 28-32), and if his career progresses similar to past superstars, his value will increases over that span. FanGraphs has Teixeira's 08 season pegged at a value of roughly $30 million dollars, and he can only be expected to improve, right? Years 5-8 might be rough at $22.5 million, but the World Series rings they rack up in years 1-4 of the contract should drown out the critics.

Bottoms line: The Yankee media downplayed the importance of acquiring Teixeira because of the gaping hole on their pitching staff. Mark Teixeira was a huge piece, and the Yankees needed him. His acquisition, combined with the Sabathia and Burnett signings should push the Yankees into the forefront of World Series competitors not only for 09, but for years to follow.

And one last thing: if you ever thought Cashman operated with a budget, you were wrong.

Phillies Sign Ibanez

2008-12-14T20:17:00.000-08:00

Article by: JT

The Phillies signed outfielder Raul Ibanez for three years and $30 million, officially cutting ties with longtime left fielder Pat Burrell. The signing is questionable, seeing as how the Phillies are essentially signing a much older, less productive player while giving up a draft pick when they could have attempted to re-sign (or at least offered arbitration to) the younger, more productive player in Burrell.

But it looks like the Phillies are getting Ibanez around his true market value, at least for 2009. From 2006-2008 Ibanez was (on average) a 2.17 WAR player, which is worth roughly $9.95 million per season. Given that he’s 36 and there’s nowhere for him to go but down, he’ll soon be making more than what he’s actually worth.

According to Eric Seidman on Fangraphs.com, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro wanted to improve the Phillies’ defense in left field, which explains their refusal to offer Pat a contract. What Mr. Amaro fails to realize, however, is that Raul is even worse than Pat is—if you want to take a look at UZR, Raul has cost the Mariners a grand total of 39 runs over the course of three years. Pat hasn’t been much better, costing the Phillies 38 runs.

Don’t trust fielding metrics? The Fans’ Scouting Report agrees with UZR—it rates Ibanez as a 36, 26 and 22 from 2006-2008, respectively, while Pat has been a 33, 31, and 28 over the same course of time. An average defender is 50, with a standard deviation of 20 points. Both players are more than one standard deviation below the mean, but Pat is the lesser of two evils.

I guess this begs the question: what’s the justification for signing Ibanez instead of retaining Burrell?

Sabathia Signs: Other Pitchers to Follow Suit?

2008-12-13T11:27:00.000-08:00

Guest Article by: JT

It’s true: money talks. C.C. Sabathia has officially signed a 7-year, $161 million contract to pitch for the New York Yankees, making him the richest pitcher in Baseball—and rightfully so. Sabathia is among the elite, and it’s not hard to imagine him justifying every single penny of his contract based on market value.

How much is Sabathia worth?

If we look at 2008 as an outlier instead of part of his average, Sabathia averaged 5.005 Wins Above Replacement from 2004-2007. Considering one win above replacement is worth somewhere around $4.4 to 4.8 million, that means Sabathia has been worth around $22-23 million per year. Now, here’s where it gets interesting—C.C. has increased his value since 2004:

2004: 3.36 WAR
2005: 3.73 WAR
2006: 5.73 WAR
2007: 7.20 WAR
2008: 9.38 WAR

Marcels projects C.C. to be worth around 6.27 WAR in 2009, and even a decline that substantial would still make Sabathia one of the best pitchers in Baseball. It will be interesting to see if he can continue to improve or if he’s reached his ceiling. His age works in his favor (he’ll be 28), as do his peripheral statistics over the past couple of years—he’s maintained a high K% and a low BB%, he induces a good amount of grounders and his LD% is relatively stable. What the numbers won’t tell us (unlike Barry Zito, for example) is how C.C. will respond to the New York media and the pressure he will undoubtedly face over the span of his contract, or how his body will hold up as he ages (it’s easy to imagine the 6’7”, 290 pound pitcher will face some sort of knee problems as he gets older).

Luckily for Sabathia (or the Yankees, however you want to look at it), there’s an opt-out clause after three years—so, should C.C. want to opt out a la Alex Rodriguez, he can—or, if he’s comfortable enough with the money and he knows he can’t get a better deal, he can just stand pat.

Now that the biggest pitcher on the market has signed, the other pitchers will follow suit. Apparently the oft-injured A.J. Burnett has signed with the Yankees as well, and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Ben Sheets (Texas?) or Derek Lowe (Red Sox?) sign soon.

New Writer: JT

2008-12-13T09:56:00.000-08:00

I decided to take on a new writer for a few guest appearances. His name is JT, and he is an intelligent writer who I wanted to provide an opportunity to share his knowledge with a wider audience. Below is a biography to give our readers a little more background, but look for JT to focus on major moves from a statistical standpoint.

"I was born and raised on Baseball, and my interest in understanding the intricacies of the game intensified after I stopped playing. My focus turned towards studying the farm systems of each organization and scouting. My attention has since turned towards understanding the numbers behind the game, and I’m an avid supporter and user of sabermetrics. I like to combine the two methods, as I feel that gives a more complete analysis of a player—what the eyes don’t tell you, the numbers most certainly will—and vice versa." -JT

Apologies

2008-12-06T21:38:00.000-08:00

I wanted to apologize for the lack of recent posting. I am currently attending the Winter Meetings in Vegas trying to prove I belong in the inner circles of baseball. Wish the best for me as I am seeking the fulfilling career I have always dreamed of.

Oh, and by the way, maybe I will sneak some analysis in during the trip as there is sure to be some dramatic moves made.

Holliday Spending: A's Acquire Slugger

2008-11-20T13:07:00.000-08:00

One of baseball's premier talents has been acquired by... the Oakland A's? As funny as it sounds, it looks like Beane and Co. are trying to prove to the fan base that they still care about winning at some point in the near future. Holliday was acquired from Colorado for Oakland pitchers Greg Smith, Houston Street, and young positional prospect Carlos Gonzalez.

The A's get one of the games best sluggers in Matt Holliday. His value is largely tied into his bat as his defense leaves more to be expected. However, the bat is special, and as skeptics point at his home/road stats as evidence of his struggles away from Coors, it is important not to be too critical. His power numbers may take a lsight hit, but even at a 10% regression, he would still average roughly 28 HR's a season with 40+ doubles. Those are still elite averages in today's game. Furthermore, the ability to get on base should not be tied to your home park as it is a transferable skill, not a product of ballpark altitude or dimensions. Holliday will continue to get on base at a near .400 clip and only elite players can do that.

The players Colorado gets are somewhat interesting. A lot of people feel Greg Smith had a fluky 08, and in a classic Beane move he was flipped peak value. I don't entirely agree as I anticipate only a slight regression from Smith. I feel he has the tools necessary to succeed at this level, but with his control problems he is a back-end of rotation starter at best. Houston Street was once a successful closer, but his skill-set has diminished rapidly and he doesn't belong closing games out for a serious contender. However, if Colorado can prove he is a useful late game reliever Colorado may have acquired a valuable trade chip at next year's deadline. Carlos Gonzalez is the main reason A's fans have griped. Many scouts feel he had an immense ceiling and he was a very important piece in the Dan Haren trade of last year. While he will only be 23 this upcoming season, it is important to note that most of Gonzalez's luster was due to his impressive seasons in 06 and 07 at High A Lancaster and AA Mobile. I do think Gonzalez still has the ability to be a star, but it might be important to temper the expectations a bit.

Like most others, I was surprised to see the A's swing a deal for Holliday. The package they gave up seems to favor the Rockies slightly because it's only one year of Holliday, and Gonzalez still has the ability to be a future star. However, if Oakland makes a run and fails, you can bet Holliday will be on the market at the deadline and there is no doubt that a team that believes they are one impact bat away from the championship push will be more than willing to give up a horde of prospects for one of the games most prolific hitters.

Trades: Olson and Willingham a Solid Upgrade

2008-11-20T12:42:00.000-08:00

Scott Olson and Josh Willingham were acquired by the Washington Nationals in exchange for 3 Minor League prospects. This is a typical Marlins move; Olson and Willingham were becoming expensive due to the arbitration process, and in a move to save money they traded them away. However, what they got in return was hardly equal value.

The prospects Florida received are all mid to low-level players. Emilio Bonifacio is considered the most MLB ready, and he may be able to step in right away as a utility player. He best profiles as a 2B without much bat, and his stock is largely tied into his "usefulness" rather than his star potential. At best you are looking at a serviceable fielder at multiple positions who puts up a line of .310/.365/.400 and even that line seems quite generous. The other two prospects, RHP P.J. Dean and 2B Jake Smolinski are two low level players who may provide some impact in the future. I like the everyday player more in Smolinski who may have been somewhat undervalued as he suffered an injury last year that forced him to miss time. He is an average fielder who's calling will be in his ability to drive balls from gap to gap.

Washington receives a volatile arm in Scott Olson, who has been wildly inconsistent and shown serious attitude problems, but also has the ability to dominate when things are together. Willingham, when healthy, is a legitimate middle of the order threat, and he is the type of player I think gets undervalued in today's game. It is reasonable to expect a .270/.380/.520 line from Willingham if all things click.

It seems this was more of a salary dump than a trade for equal value. The Marlins receive salary relief, with the potential for some serviceable prospects, while the Nationals get two immediately useful Major League players. I think Olson will continue to show his consistency while Willingham proves to be the important piece of this trade providing great value at a relatively low cost.

Trade Quick Take: Jacobs to the Royals

2008-11-13T00:11:00.001-08:00

When I read it I thought it was a typo. I mean, who actually trades for a Jacobs type player when they have two younger, viable options at the position. Most analysts will harp on the same things I will which include a sickening OBP, and a love of the big whiff. He may give you 25-30 HR, but his biggest asset will be the cooling system his bat provides spectators after he fans them with his swing-and-miss habits. Also, Jacobs defense is horrible, and the pitcher KC gave, Leo Nunez, is a decent bullpen arm who shouldn't just be given away.

If it were Christmas time I would say the Marlins got a nice gift, and that Dayton Moore deserves a lump of coal. You are on the naughty list this year sir.

Implementing a Salary Cap: Good or Bad for the Game?

2008-10-30T21:04:00.000-07:00

I would like to thank in advance one of my readers, Michael Potter, for providing some awesome questions for me to evolve into full length features on this site. Over the course of the next few weeks, you will see me feature some of his questions as the centerpiece for discussion. This particular question pertains to the salary cap, and was asked as follows:

"Pitting baseball against the NFL/NBA, there are some clear differences in how teams are allowed to handle their rosters. At the Major League level, the most glaring difference between baseball and the NFL/NBA is the lack of a salary cap. Ultimately, I don't expect baseball to ever conform and establish a salary cap. Do you think implementing a cap would be good for the game?" -Michael Potter

First off, I love this question because people vary wildly on the issue. I think there is no point implementing a cap, and here's why.

Baseball is such a different game than the NBA and the NFL. It is hard to compare the sports laterally, and I think it's best to not pit them against one another. However, if we only analyze the salary caps of the sports, or lack there of in baseball, we can make some sense out of this glaring difference.

Each sports has its own players association. Baseball has the MLPA, NFL has the NFLPA, and basketball has the Players Association. Each of these branches were designed to give the individual players in the sports rights, and protect them from greedy owners looking to take profits on the success of the players.

So why do the NBA and the NFL have a cap when the MLB does not. For that answer, I challenge YOU to a question: how much does Lebron James or Tom Brady affect the outcome of EVERY game that they play? I think we could argue they play a huge role in the success of their teams. But here's another question: how much does Alex Rodriguez, baseball's highest paid player, affect the outcome of a Yankee game? If you use WARP, which is an attempt to gauge a player's ability to provide wins based on performance over the course of the year relative to a replacement player, Rodriguez would provide an additional 9 wins per season. If you divide the 162 game season by those 9 wins, Rodriguez affects approximately 5.5% of the games the Yankees play over the course of the season. I think it is safe to say that Lebron and Brady affect a much higher % of their team's games.

So what does this information mean? The effect these player's have on their team's performance is a large factor in the reason the NBA and the NFL have a salary cap when the MLB does not. Individuals in basketball and footbal play such critical roles in their team's outcomes that it makes it completely unfair to have limitless power to sign any player you want. In baseball, players often don't pan out when high price Free Agent contracts are haded out (see Brown, Kevin).

Furthermore, look at the way the 2008 Major League baseball season played out; 4/10 of the top salaried teams did not make the playoffs. Add to the fact that the World Series was a competition between the 13th highest team salary (Phillies) and the 29th (Rays) whom in route to the World Series defeated the 15th, 8th, 5th and 4th highest salaried teams in the Brewers, Dodgers, White Sox and Red Sox respectively. Obviously money didn't buy these teams a championship.

My point is simple: baseball is a game that relies more heavily on the output of the entire team, thus presenting less of a focus on individual impact players. I do beleive that money can buy you a team on the brink of playoff tion each year, but it does not guarentee you a spot in October (see Yankees circa 2008). There is no way the MLPA will ever agree to implement a salary cap, and I think it is silly for owners to ask for one. It would need the signature of the Union, and it makes little sense for them to agree. The popularity of baseball is on the rise, and the owners should embrace the increased revenues as they are. It adds an appreciated element to the game to see a smaller market team balance a championship-type year with a limited payroll. As a hopeful candidate for a future front office position, I would be more satisfied knowing I created the perfect team with limited financial resources.

I see how other sports have found success with the salary cap, but I don't believe it belongs in baseball which reminds me of the Beatles song, "Let it Be."

Mailbag: Answering Your Questions

2008-10-29T16:22:00.000-07:00

I recently asked the readers to ask any questions they would like answered regarding offseason moves organizations may make. I appreciate all the comments and emails I received in response, and will do my best to answer all of them. However, if you do not see your questions answered in this segment (Mr. Potter, Orange County CA) don't be discouraged as they may have motivated me to do an in-depth piece on the subject matter. These are only questions I received in the comments section of this post, the emails will be answered later.

Hey Ross,
I love your blog!!! I am huge giants fan and i would like to know who you think they will acquire (via trade or free agent) to take over the 7th and 8th inning to get the ball to Wilson? I would also like to hear who you think is the one guy out there that is a can't miss for the Giants to fill holes in the lineup? Thanks Again.

- PHD

I really can't see the Giants making a big splash in the trade market for a 7th or 8th inning guy as they aren't competitors in the lowly NL West. Why give up organizational pieces for a one inning reliever if it isn't going to make a formidable impact on your team's 09 success? With that being said, one potential suitor I like via Free Agency is former Dodger Joe Beimel. He isn't well known, outside of LA, but he has consistently shown an ability to get players out. He may be a sleeper to watch on the market this Winter as Left Handed relief pitchers are often sought after. I think it would be best to use Hinshaw and Romo in more prominent roles, and assess what you have.

As far as a "can't miss" guy, I'm not sure you mean internally, free agency, or trade so I will suggest the same player I recommended when he was drafted by the Giants in this year's supplemental round: Conor Gillaspie. I don't believe he has the superstar ceiling a lot of people want to associate with an early pick, but I believe his game is refined and he will be a productive Major Leaguer for many years. (I was surprised to see him up so early, but rumor has it was part of his contract to ensure a greater salary by starting his arbitration clock)

I got a couple things I want to run by you. First, and obviously one of the more popular questions this offseason, does Cain get traded and if so for what> I have been hearing Derek Lee, Delmon Young, and Prince but none of those really make sense to me as far as a one for one trade. I know the Giants price for him is high, in your mind what will it take?

As far as the Giants are concerned, I see them making a mediocre attempt at both Manny and CC but in the end probably not being attractive enough to either of them. What do you see the Giants doing in terms of free agency?

-Anonymous

Cain being traded is the Giant's fans #1 offseason topic, but it is hard to gauge a scenario possible for that rumor to come true. The question other teams must answer is why is Matt Cain valuable? I see his value being the product of 3 major ingredients:

He is under team control for another 3 very affordable years
He has pitched like a #2, on average, for the past 3 years
He is 24 years old, with a proven track record of MLB success, and a ceiling to continue to improve

With that being said, what is someone like that worth? I think you have to start with a comparable package to the Dan Haren trade: two top prospects, two mediocre prospects, and two serviceable pieces. In the case of Cain, I don't think the Giants would want quantity as much as they would want quality. The front office has hinted that they want a young, proven, MLB hitter, but none seem available. Prince Fielder may be that "type", but do you want to exchange your most valuable piece for a 1B with below average defense, who plays one of the easiest offensive production positions? Probably not. Derek Lee doesn't fit the mold, and Delmon Young could be a piece of something worthy of Cain, but his value has diminished slightly and there is no reason the Twins should trade him for two cents on the dollar.

In the end, the Giants shouldn't consider trading Cain unless someone offers a fair exchange of talent and cost relative to positional scarcity and potential. As a random example of a scenario I would consider for Cain is something along the lines of Cain plus a Major League reliever to the Rangers for prospects Elvis Andrus (SS), Julio Borbon (OF), Martin Perez (LHP), and Engel Beltre (OF). If you follow the prospect rankings you know that these players are considered the type of players with future star potential, and I think that is the route the Giants should try to go. If they can't receive this type of package, then hold onto Cain because there is ABSOLUTELY NO reason why you HAVE to trade him.

I agree with your thoughts on kicking the tires with CC and Manny, but lets be honest: they ain't coming.

Alderson and Bumgarner have been absolutely taking the minors by storm. We also have Gillespie (who is considered a professional type hitter already) and Posey, who I know by the Giants not signing him to a major league contract they don't want to rush.
What do you foresee as an ETA for these for promising talents to reach the major league level, and how do you project their success?

-Anonymous

Touched on this a little a bit earlier, but I will disclose the full details on the matter. Alderson is more advanced than Bumgarner, and I think a lot of Giants fans have a hard time tempering their optimism on Madison because he was absolutely dominant at Low A. However, I am somewhat concerned about his lack of offspeed pitches as it is still a learning process. A left handed pitcher who can locate his low 90's fastball to both sides of the plate is going to dominate the lower levels. I put his ETA at 2011 at the earliest.

Alderson is much closer in my opinion, and I think his success at San Jose is a testament to his advanced grasp of the game. I expect the Giants to challenge him with a potential half season of AA, with a shot at some AAA action. I would not be surprised if he got a taste of the Big Leagues by early to mid 2010.

Gillaspie is close, but he shouldn't have been up in the Bigs to sit the bench. I think he could follow a Pablo Sandoval type path and rocket through the minors, starting at High A in San Jose. His defense will be more of a question than his bat. Expected ETA: another September call-up of 09.

Posey will take some time as there tends to be less rush for catching prospects. I think he has an advanced skill set and I would like to see the Giants keep him on the West Coast starting him in High A, and bumping him straight to Fresno if he does well there, skipping over AA. I expect at least 1.5 years of Minor League development time, and I think he could have a solid season in 09, followed up by a nice AFL performance resulting in a mid year call-up of 2010.I know a lot of fans want their cake now, but it isn't quite ready.

Free agents that I would like to know their future. (I understand you cant tell the future I just want your predictions)

Pudge Rodriguez: the best catcher in our life time.. whats happening to him?

Jeff Kent: we are Giants fans I know you love this guy... but he is 41, does he stay put or are we gonna see retirment?

Griffey Jr: could have been the best player that ever lived if he wasnt injured all the time.. hes 39.. do the white sox still see that Griffey tallent we all saw 6-8 years ago?

and you heard my comment about Ben sheets.. where is he headed?

-Corey Birch

Interesting choices, more for their name value than their present day value as most of these guys have exceeded their stay in the Big Leagues. Of the three, I really only feel Pudge should continue playing, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees offer him some form of a deal to come back considering Jorge Posada's health issues.

Kent is no longer a MLB regular at 2B, but if the Dodgers don't want him back, and I'd bet they are at 50/50 on that front, I could see an AL team taking a flyer on him as a full-time DH. Would Kent agree to that type of role, probably not, but it may be the only way he continues to play. Hard to speculate on a DH type player.

Griffey is going to give it another go, and I doubt many teams have any interest other than the Mariners strictly as a publicity ploy because they will be so bad next year, people will want to be paid to go to the games. He is done in Chicago, and while he may have some value as a platoon OF, his days as a slugger and Gold Glove caliber CF are long over.

I will address your concerns for Ben Sheets in a later post.

No way deal Cain this Winter. His stock isn't at it's highest right now and plus, we have to give this 23 year old a few years to make some adjustments. Sabean would be fired on the spot if Cain got dealt and became a 20 game winner next year while were stuck with another .260 hitter.(Pierzynski?) I think he will think twice before making that mistake again and be extra careful with Cain's market. However, I would consider a Cain-trade if Matt Holliday's name was being thrown around. How about this: Cain, Alderson, and Justin Fitzgerald for Matt Holliday. Done deal.

-Anonymous

Justin Fitzgerald? That may be the funniest name heard in a rumor since the Winter Meetings of 93 (that's just a joke, don't look up those meetings). Anyway, I don't think comparing Cain being dealt to the A.J. Pierzynski deal is a fair comp. In a way, it's almost reversed in that the Giants are giving a proven MLB commodity for "speculative prospects" with high ceilings. We all know how the deal worked out for both sides so why don't you want to be on the winning side this time? And regarding Cain-Holliday: would you really want to give up 3 years of Cain for one of Matt Holliday knowing he will be a one-year rental that won't help the team enough to win a championship? The Rockies would do that trade in a second.

The Marlins had a solid core in the NL West and finished with a very respectable 84-77 record. They have 15 Arbitration eligible players this offseason most notably.. Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Olsen, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida (still hasnt lived up to hype)... and many more but those most notably. With the strong showing this past season even with the lowest payroll in baseball will the Marlins be the Marlins again and run some of these guys off to bring up Talent ready to break the big leauges? or will they spend a little to keep some of the young talent that proved they can drive the ball out of the ballpark and score runs along with one of the better young pitching staffs in Baseball that won 84 games

- JF

The Marlins are always an interesting team as they are the definition of building by rebuilding. With an owner in Jeffrey Loria, who refuses to allow payroll to climb into the "respectable" range, the Marlins will always have issues holding onto their players. However, for Fish fans there is some promising news. This past offseason the Marlins extended Hanley Ramirez to a lucrative long-term deal, buying up years of arbitration and adding length to his tenure with the team. This was a rare move for this organization as they often cut-bait when marquee players become too expensive. Furthermore, the front office has been recently quoted in saying they will allow payroll to increase "to the $40 million range." While that is an appetizer for most teams, its a big step for a notoriously cheap organization. So what does it all mean?

Recently, mlbtraderumors.com did offseason outlooks for most every ballclub, including the Marlins and they have their estimated payroll to be around $20 million prior to any arbitration cases. With 15 players headed to arb as you mention, there should be plenty of players to go. I would imagine players they will re-sign via arbitration or long-term deals as the following: Uggla, Olsen, J. Johnson, Nolasco, Cantu, Hermida, Willingham, and any reliever they feel will cost less than $650K in an arb case. Of those players mentioned I believe Hermida and Olsen will be the most heavily shopped, but the Marlins may not find an adequate suitor unless they are willing to settle for a lower level prospect. I guess it is somewhat rare to say about the Marlins, but I think they will appease the fanbase this offseason by hanging on to their nucleus of players, and trading parts they deem somewhat expendable in Olsen and Hermida if the market sees a fit.

They have some solid talent on the way in the Minor Leagues, and I think it would be unwise not to listen to offers for their proven Major League positional players who may get expensive. If the Marlins think Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, and Chris Coughlan are less than a year away from being ready then their strategy should remain to dump the costly veterans like Willingham, Hermida, and Jacobs and replace with comprable cheaper parts.

Where do you think some of the marquee free agent acquisitions will end up this year? Can you speculate on some big names such as Manny Ramirez, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, AJ Burnett, Adam Dunn, Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, and Pat Burrell?

-Anonymous

I don't like to speculate on why or explain in great detail my reasoning for these players destinations because it is such a crap-shoot, but here's a guess:

Sabathia: Dodgers
Ramirez: Dodgers
Texeira: Angels (maybe Yankees if Sabathia signs early)
Burnett: Yankees
Dunn: Royals or White Sox
Lowe: Tigers (sleeper)
Sheets: Braves
Burrell: Phillies or Angels
** If I get one of these right I will be ecstatic **

Thanks to everyone that wrote in, and sorry for the West Coast bias as most my questions were about the Giants. I love to answer anything, and I will be getting to the emails later. Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoy.

Reader Response

2008-10-24T11:40:00.001-07:00

I have been asked by a few readers to do a segment in which I predict some offseason trades, acquisitions, etc. However, instead of making them up from nothing, I would like to ask my readers to suggest any such ideas they would like me to elaborate on. I will take your suggestions, and elaborate in greater depth.

For example: What are the chances Jake Peavy gets dealt this offseason. Where does he go, and what does he net in return? (I will then answer with my opinion on the matter)

Feel free to leave your questions in the comment box of this post or email me at rfenstermaker@gmail.com

Thanks, and I look forward to this segment.

Comparing Draft Grades to Baseball America's

2008-10-24T11:23:00.000-07:00

Baseball America recently posted their draft grades which are available to subscribers only. For infringement purposes I cannot post the entire article, but I will share a portion with you for the purpose of comparing them to the grades I made myself. I strongly recommend a BA subscription as their coverage is unmatched.

My List of top drafts posted on 08/21/08:
1. Giants
2. Royals
3. Red Sox
4. Rangers
5. Orioles

Baseball America's list of top drafts posted on 10/23/08:
1. Rangers
2. Royals
3. Giants
4. Twins
5. Red Sox

The two lists are quite similar except that Baseball America liked the Twins a bit more than I did. I originally graded the Twins draft at a B, but that was without seeing any of their player's performances in professional ball. One big reason for the Twins strength was the outstanding performance by 1st rounder Aaron Hick's in his first taste of pro ball. I still like the Orioles draft and feel it remains one of the better, but I can understand how the Twins draft has climbed.

What makes this interesting to me is that my original list was posted 6 days after the signing deadline when our ability to analyze these players at the next level was slim. However, Baseball America has had the time to make the live assessment of these players yet our lists vary only slightly by ranking while the teams in the top 5 are nearly identical. What does that mean: I think it is a testament to understanding what it takes for players to succeed at the next level, and properly projecting the probability those players will perform at the levels suggested.

A Ray of Light

2008-10-21T20:10:00.001-07:00

With the Rays recent run of success, it has one thinking: Are other teams paying attention?

It seems the league is slowly realizing the importance of building a team piece by piece, but few have committed the proper amount of resources it takes to make the change complete. If you look at some of the league's most productive players, it is hard to ignore how young some of them are. To analyze this, let's use VORP as a measure of player's efficiency in 08 (I know it is not perfect, but it is a valuable statistic).

In looking at these players, an interesting trend appears; their age. Of the top 30 offensive players in the league 22 of them are under the Age of 30. Furthermore, of those 22 players, half of them are under the age of 26 (note: one player left off is Ray's 3B Evan Longoria who some analysts believe can currently be considered as one of the league's most valuable players). This information is astonishing when you consider that the conventional wisdom used to believe that a player's peak years tend to come at ages 28-32.

Why is this happening? There are many different arguments, but I believe players progressions have sped up due an increase in technology and competition as amateurs. With the advancement of the showcase circuit, travel baseball, etc., the college ranks have improved, and the High School kids have proven much more advanced. The better the competition, the more likely a player will improve. So it brings us back to the central theme: What does it all mean?

I think this is imperative to realize if you want to be a competitive baseball organization. Understanding the true value of youth is a concept neglected in years past. However, failing to recognize this importance now symbolizes a large organizational no-no: Large Payrolls that lack success.

Believe it or not, this is a good thing for the game. It generates parity amongst all clubs, large budget or not. Teams that refuse to spend $20 million a year for the hottest free agent can now reallocate that money to the draft and international front creating a depth of prospects. Not everyone makes it, and baseball can be a crap-shoot, but the technology and ability to analyze these players in greater depth should provide a more accurate assessment.

I tip my cap to the Rays and their ability to forecast future trends. It may be a product of being successful investors on Wall Street as forecasting trends in the market can make you a wealthy man. Baseball is a business, and these former traders analyze players the way more teams should: as valuable commodities. When it's the right time to buy, they buy; but when a commodity has reached peak value, and it is time to sell, I believe they will do the right thing. I know players are people, but its also a billion dollar business. If you are trying to be everyone's friend this isn't the business for you.

Congratulations to the Rays organization for the amazing success this year. I will continue to push the importance of youth in organizations. I may no longer need to be as extensive with my youth promotion as there seems to be a Ray of Light cast on the value of youth.

Draft Grades: Tampa-Washington

2008-10-01T16:24:00.000-07:00

Tampa Bay: B-
There were plenty of rumors who the Rays would take with their first pick. At times it was Posey. At times it was Alvarez. But in the end they went for ceiling in Tim Beckham. Surprisingly, they were able to sign him early and get him a good taste of professional baseball. The results varied, but he definitely showed flashes of talent that excited everyone. The Rays have one of the best farm systems in baseball partially because they have been so bad for years, but also because they recognize talent, and do what they must to sign them. Kyle Lobstein (2nd round) was considered by many scouts as the top pitching prospect on the High School circuit following his Junior year. His performance wavered his Senior year, but he still has a ton of talent and projection left. Jake Jefferies (3rd round), who happens to be a UC Davis alum, is an advanced Catcher with a professional approach. Scouts would have liked to see a more aggressive approach at the plate, but his low Strikeout totals are the product of patience and discipline. He is an excellent receiver with an above average arm. One player I would keep an eye on is Mike Sheridan (5th round) who put up solid offensive power numbers for William & Mary, yet rarely swung and missed. If that skill set can transfer to the next level, Sheridan should prove to be a valuable asset. The Rays spent a lot on Beckham, and he deserved it, so assets were depleted in the later rounds. However, they did a solid job of recognizing "must-have" players and signing them. It wasn't the best draft, but there were few mistakes.

Texas: B+
Very good draft. Justin Smoak falling into their lap is a miracle to me. He is a potential superstar in the mold of Mark Texeira who can mash from both sides of the plate and handle defense at 1b. He strikes me as the type of player that will put up many seasons of 30+ Home Runs and I scratched my head wondering how he fell all the way to #11. I had him as high as #3 on my board before the draft. Not only was Smoak a coup, but the Rangers did well with their other picks. Robbie Ross (2nd round) was a steal, and I imagine him turning into one of the better pitching prospects this class produces. He is tall, athletic, and very projectable from the left side. Tim Murphy (3rd round) is an enigma in that scouts feel he will move to the bullpen, but I believe he could remain a starter. He has average stuff from the left side, but the guy is a fierce competitor and can shoulder a load of innings. The Rangers were able to sign their first nine picks which also included Mike Bianucci (8th round) from Auburn. Bianucci has flown under the collegiate radar, but he is athletic and strong and can offer some valuable power production in the OF. He does like to swing, so he may have to increase his plate discipline in order to rise through the system. Keep an eye on 11th rounder Cliff Springston who has an advanced feel for pitching, and a very projectable frame. If he can improve his fastball velocity he may be able to turn into a valuable asset. I love the Ranger's draft mostly because of their first two picks in Smoak and Ross which I felt were excellent choices. They signed most of their important guys, and did very well in 08's draft.

Toronto: C+
Another team that flies under the radar; the Jays had some good and some bad in this year's draft. Half of their first four choices excited me. I think 1st rounder David Cooper is a better player than people credit him for. He may not be a 30+ Homer guy, but he will work counts, and provide enough power that he can remain at 1B. I don't like Kenny Wilson (2nd round) because I think the speed tool is overrated. I'm surprised to see Andrew Leibel (3rd round) fall that late. Many players who competed against him in the Big West informed me that he was untouchable at times for Long Beach. He turned the corner his Junior year, and put up back to back season of solid performance. I think he could move fast in the Jays organization. I don't like 4th rounder Mark Sobolewski as his wood bat track record is below average. Eric Thames (7th round) signed late, but was well worth his bonus. He is an athletic player who could handle a corner OF position handily and be an asset with the bat. One player to keep an eye on is Danny Farquhar who has shown flashes of dominance with 9+ K/9 rates, but may lack the durability to hold up at the next level. The Jays saved money in the first round in signing Cooper for slot, and therefore had enough money to sign their first 25 players. I would have liked to see them use early picks a little more wisely, but they did well locking up their guys.

Washington: F
Where to start? They didn't sign their first pick in Aaron Crow because of $500,000. Their 2nd rounder, Destin Hood, is highly dependent on projection, but could become a star. Their 3rd rounder, Danny Espinosa, is overrated. J.P. Ramirez (15th round) could be great, but offers a lot of projection. There just isn't much talent here to work with. The only player worth following is Adrian Nieto (5th round) who could be a superstar if he can remain behind the dish. For a High School product, Nieto is advanced with the bat from both sides of the plate, and getting him in the 5th round could be quite the steal. The Nationals had one of the worst drafts, which is unfortunate for such a struggling franchise. I do think they were treated unfairly with the Crow negotiations, as we have discovered that Alvarez was granted an extension by the league in order to sign his contract with the Pirates. Since the Nationals were unable to sign Crow because of the "deadline" they too should be able to renegotiate. However, they failed to file a grievance, and their window of opportunity was closed. Next year will be an important draft for the Nationals with 2 picks in the top 10 (one coming as compensation for not signing Crow). On the other hand, this year was pretty bad.

World Series

2008-10-01T11:25:00.001-07:00

Not going to do any statistical analysis, but rather, just go with my gut feelings:

World Series 08:

Phillies
over
Rays

Draft Grades: Pittsburg-St. Louis

2008-09-26T12:23:00.000-07:00

Pittsburgh: B-
I had been waiting for the Alvarez fiasco to end before I gave my final assessment because that was, uhh, kind of a big deal. In the end the Pirates got their boy, and although it was a lot of frustration, Pedro was well worth it. Coming into the draft I had him rated as the best prospect available and the Pirates proved to their fan base they weren't messing around by going after a Boras client instead of an easy sign (ask Daniel Moskos about that). After Alvarez, the Pirates did some good, and some bad. It was disappointing that Tanner Scheppers (2nd round) couldn't prove his shoulder problems were behind him as he was once considered a potential top 10 pick this year. Chase D'Arnaud in the 4th was a value pick in that he upped his stock after proving he could play SS at an advanced level at Pepperdeine. He isn't a high-ceiling player, but a guy that could contribute at the Major League level. It was surprising to see Robbie Grossman (6th round) sign after early reports were he wasn't planning on turning pro. In the end he couldn't refuse the $1,000,000 bonus and if he plays like he did on the showcase circuit last summer, he has a lot to offer. One player to keep an eye on is 16th rounder Wes Freeman as he just oozes tools, but is extremely raw. This is the type of high-ceiling pick you go after in the later rounds and hope your organization can refine an amazing skill set. Getting Alvarez goes a lot for their overall draft value, but it lacked the amount of high-ceiling players good drafts typically have.

San Diego: C
One of the draft's other debacles in the 1st round in that Alan Dykstra and the Padres had some issues arise after a physical uncovered a degenerate hip condition for the slugger. The Padres wanted to lower their initial offer, and the Dykstra side was not happy, but in the end a deal was reached. I'm not sold on Dykstra yet, but I do like that he is a patient hitter with an advanced approach. He profiles as more of a regular contributor than an All-Star. Supplemental 1st rounder Jaff Decker reminds scouts of a younger Matt Stairs, but another player he resembles (especially body type) is Blue Jays OF Travis Snider. Either of those two are nice comparisons as Decker seems to be the next version of a compact bodied slugger. I like his upside as long as he continues to prove that his body type won't affect his athleticism in the field. James Darnell in the 2nd was seen by most as an upside pick as he is extremely athletic and most likely will be able to remain at 3B. However, for a college product I would have liked to see a more refined skill-set, but I do think he has the potential to yield a solid Major League return if they do not rush him. After the first 5 rounds San Diego didn't do much else in the draft than bore me. Not signing Dykstra would have been a disaster, but he, complimented with the talent in Darnell, and my affinity for Dacker give the Padres a decent, but unspectacular draft.

San Francisco: A
It has been a rough couple of years for Giants fans, and that may continue, but it is not because their drafting the last two years has been poor. Many analysts thought the Giants did excellent in last year's draft, and they continued the tradition this year. Their 07 draft consisted of mostly high-upside High School picks, so the SF decided to go the opposite direction this year and use their first nine selections on collegiate products (one Junior College player). If strong teams are built up the middle than San Francisco did an excellent job in establishing their Catcher of the future in Buster Posey. Once considered a probable #1 selection, Posey fell due to an 8-digit expected bonus. He essentially fell into the Giant's laps at #5 and in the end he only cost $6.2 million (much less than expected). The past success of Catchers taken early in the draft does not bode well, but he may be the "Joe Mauer" exception of recent drafts. After Posey the Giants did not stop acquiring talent as their next 3 selections: Gillaspie (1S), Kieschnick (3rd), and Crawford (4th) were all considered potential 1st round selections in the draft. I mentioned Gillaspie in a previous post as one of my favorites to be a consistent Major League producer, and he surprised even me with a Septermber call up. Two players to keep a close eye on for opposite reasons are 5th rounder Edwin Quirarte and 7th rounder Aaron King. Watch Quirarte because he is polished and has command of multiple offerings. He could move extremely fast in a bullpen role. Watch King because at 19, he has all the tools you would want from a LHP, but needs to continue to work on refining them. With a FB that ranges 90-95 and a workable change-up the only thing holding him back is his consistency. He will move slow, but offers an incredible ceiling. Shout out to RHP Justin Fitzgerald (11th round) who was a fellow UC Davis Aggie.

Seattle: F
Yuck! One of the worst drafts this year, regardless of whether Fields signs or not. It is unclear why an uncompetitive team in Seattle would draft a highly advance reliever with their first pick in Fields anyway. In doing so they skipped over better talents in Freidrich and Gillaspie. The Fields selection makes little sense as it was not a $ issue considering he is advised by Boras, and they knew they would have to pay. Furthermore, the later draft picks lack the value that makes you applaud an organization. However, I do not want to take anything away from Dennis Raben who I think should have been drafted in the 1st round. He is the type of talent that people let slip because of a monkey-see, monkey-do type of philosophy. He struggled with minor injuries, and is somewhat flashy, but make no mistake; the bat will play at the Major Leagues. I'm not sure if he can last long term at a Corner OF spot, but my gut says yes. The only other player worth noting in the Mariner's draft is 14th rounder Luke Burnett. If the M's decide to scrap Burnett as a starter and use him in a bullpen role he may regain some of the success he experienced on the Cape, which made him a name to know amongst scouts. Shout out to 13th rounder Ryan Royster, a fellow UC Davis Aggie. Young!

St. Louis: B
Cardinals fans can be some of the most annoying (outside of NY) because of how passionate they are about their team, and how much hype they give to their players. However, St. Louis deserves to have some freedom to do so after the organization did a solid job picking "solid" players in this years draft. I followed Brett Wallace for awhile, and had the opportunity to see him live many times. Every time I watched the kid play I found myself amazed with his professional approach. The kid can flat out rake, and even if his glove is suspect at 3rd, which many scouts have suggested, his bat will play up. They will find a place for him to play because they have to. Unfortunately I am torn on 2nd rounder Lance Lynn. I do know how to evaluate him, so I won't say anything. Shane Peterson (2nd round) is not the type of player you "wow" over, but he is consistent, and has the ability to be a regular at the next level. One of my favorite picks in the 08 draft was Niko Vasquez in the 3rd round. I was surprised he went this low, but he struggled after a suspension in High School for academic reasons. I think it was simply rust, and I believe he will continue to be an offensive minded SS with potential to be a tick above average with the glove. Another underrated pick is Scott Gorgen (4th). He was an absolute workhorse for UC Irvine during his 3 years. I got to see him throw multiple times, and Gorgen is a fierce competitor who throws strikes and keeps hitters off balance with an above average changeup. If he can consistently keep his FB velocity around 90 mph, he has the ability to fly under the radar and baffle professional hitter with his changeup. Keep an eye on him as high pitch counts at Irvine may be a concern. The Cardinals had one of the better drafts, but they lacked the elite talent to push them into the upper tier.

Draft Grades: Minnesota-Philadelphia

2008-09-19T14:12:00.000-07:00

Minnesota: B
The Twins went 2/3 with their first 3 picks in terms of quality, and in baseball that isn't bad. Aaron Hicks (14th overall) is extremely talented, and I imagine him doing extremely well as he continues to refine an excellent bag of skills. Carlos Gutierrez at pick 27 was a stretch, and it seems like they settled for mediocrity when other players with higher ceilings were available. Regardless, they bounced back nicely with Shooter Hunt, who I believe wrongfully slipped down on most draft boards. He has an excellent arsenal and attacks hitters. BJ Hermsen in the 6th round was questionable as he had been struggling with arm trouble for nearly a year. It was surprising to see the Twins take a chance on Mike Tonkin in the 30th round and throw him enough cash ($230,000) to get him to sign. As a high school arm Tonkin is quite raw, but his low 90's velocity is already there, and plenty of scouts believe his 6' 6" frame projects a high ceiling future. Nice job by the Twins who have had questionable drafts in the past, but done quite well the last few years.

New York Mets: D-
When you are one of baseball's strongest financial teams, it would be best served for you to flex that muscle in areas such as the draft to improve a depleted farm system after the trade for Johan Santana. However, the Mets settled for slot picks, and I hated both of their first round choices in Ike Davis and Reese Havens. With both picks the Mets passed on Christain Fredrich which made zero sense to me. Both Davis and Havens played in excellent programs that tend to elevate statistics, and I don't think their talent will play at the Major League level. Their best selection was Brad Holt in the supplemental first who has the potential to be a flame throwing starter. Holt needs to continue to prove he has refined his command, but the potential is certainly there. Sean Ratliff in the 4th could prove to be a nice value pick as he shows a lot of upside as a OF prospect, but needs to improve his batting eye. Frugal draft by a financial beast.

New York Yankees: D-
It seems that nothing went the Yankees way this year as they will miss the playoffs, and their draft was one of the poorer for reasons we may never know for certain. Maybe it was their ignorance or maybe it was simply bad luck. When you are unable to sign 2 of your first 3 draft picks that is not good. Cole seemed poised to be a Yankee as he was asking for top 10 money and he slipped perfectly to the Yankees at 28th. However, reports seemed to hint that Cole was never interested in signing, but the Yankee brass may have thought that enough money would do the trick. Apparently, it did not. It was very disappointing to also miss out on 3rd rounder Scott Bittle from Ole Miss. He didn't profile as a "blow you away" pitcher, but he had solid command and put up an impressive 5:1 K/BB out of the Rebel's closer role, and struck out nearly 2 batters per inning. Of course the Yankees had a few later signs that they went over slot for, and they could turn out to be above average players, but I don't see the kind of talent they have signed in years past. I'm not a fan of Bleich in the supplemental round, but I do like the potential of Brett Marshall in the 6th round. He has the potential to be an impact type arm if he can hone the skills that scouts drooled over in past. His main problem has been inconsistency. A potential sleeper: D.J. Mitchell out of Clemson in the 10th round. He may be undersized, but he was also underused at Clemson, but when he played on the Cape Cod circuit he showed flashes of dominance.

Oakland: B
I actually think the A's did very well for themselves in the draft this year, but my main disappointment was that they defended their 1st round pick of Jemile Weeks by stating they were looking for an "up the middle player." If there is one thing the draft has taught us over the years, it is that drafting for positional scarcity is not intelligent. Teams are usually best served by taking the "best" overall player regardless of position. Because of this, I am disappointed that they passed on Brett Wallace who has shown he is a legitimate Major League prospect thusfar with the Cardinals. I think he was a far better player than Weeks, and even though Wallace position is TBD, he reminds me of 08's Travis Snider (plus plus bat). However, after Weeks, the A's did well and surprised me by going over slot for one-time first round talent Brett Hunter (7th), and super athletic Rashun Dixon (10th). Hunter has electric stuff, and I saw his start against Stanford in the NCAA regional where he was consistently sitting 92-94 with good sinking action on his FB. That was an extremely valuable pick. Sleeper: don't forget about SS Dusty Coleman from Wichita State who was taken in the 28th round and signed for $675,000. If Weeks doesn't pan out, Coleman could be the type of up the middle talent Oakland was looking for.

Philadelphia: B
If any team rolled the dice in the draft this year it was the Phillies. They took High School players with 6 of their first 7 picks. Their first selection, SS Anthony Hewitt was a bit raw for my liking. He has the tools to be an excellent player, but he is extremely immature and will struggle to consistently make contact at a more advanced level. However, with the iffy pick in Hewitt, the Phills made up for it with their selection of Zach Collier. Collier is towards the top of my list of potential prospects, and in some ways reminds me of Jayson Heyward last year in that scouts just didn't get enough of a look at him against tough competition to make a fair assessment. Collier is a 5-tool player who I think will grow into a prolific corner OF slugger who could put up 30+ HR at Citizen's Bank, and could potentially steal 20+ bags a year while playing above average defense. Furthermore, I liked Anthony Gose (2nd rounder) as a LHP more than an OF, but the Phillies are going to give him a chance to see if he can make it there before they attempt to put him on a mound. I think it is hard to ignore mid 90's heat from the left side, but I understand he wants to play everyday. I applaud the Phills for an extremely valuable pick in the 5th round of Jeremy Hamilton who is a less hyped version of Brett Wallace who played in a less discussed conference in college. Everywhere he goes, he hits, besides limited AB's received with Team USA, but I wouldn't read much into that (small sample). Also, watch out for Jarred Cosart (38th round) who signed late for $550,000 and offers an extreme amount of potential, and Colby Shreeve (6th round) who will have Tommy John surgery, but was considered as one of the top JUCO prospects this year. If it weren't for Hewitt in the first, I would have ranked the Phillies draft much higher. I really like their high-ceiling choices.

The Internet Police

2008-09-15T21:06:00.000-07:00

I would just like to say that I was blocked from commenting on one of my favorite websites, mlbtraderumors.com, which I so happen to have a quick link widget on this blog for -->

Apparently I am not allowed to include the website I write for as a copy and paste link because it "offends" the readers according to webmaster Tim Dierkes... WOW!

Who would have imagined that the internet police system would rise from a website built to cover MLB Trade Rumors?

Will I continue to read the site's content, yes, but am I a little disappointed that this happened, absolutely. I never have written anything negative about MLBTR, actually quite the opposite in the fact that I PROMOTE them! I thought I could get a little more respect than that. Ouch!

Draft Grades: Houston-Milwaukee

2008-09-14T21:27:00.000-07:00

Houston: C-
I don't like Houston's draft much due to the belief that they vastly overdrafted Jason Castro. I am astonished Justin Smoak lasted as long as he did as he was a much more complete player than Castro. It doesn't seem like the Astros were drafting based on needs as they have a young talented Major League Catcher in J.R Towles so this makes their pick more questionable. The good: their pick of Ross Seaton in the supplemental 3rd was solid as he shows excellent velocity and projectability. After Seaton there wasn't muich more to like, and Jordan Lyles in the supplemental 1st was a joke. Look out for a sleeper in 11th rounder Jacob Priday who has lightower power, but also has a tendency to swing and miss a lot.

Kansas City: A
Anytime you can get two first round talents with only one first round pick, you have done well. The Royals did just that by locking up my favorite hitter in this years draft in Eric Hosmer, and also getting the local boy Tim Melville RHP to join the organization. Both players have huge upsides, but I think Hosmer is an amazing talent, and I'm glad to see the Royals pay the necessary money to make it work, depending on the Boras scandal. 2nd rounder Giavotella is a patient hitter with an advanced approach at the plate and could see a quick progression as a 2B in the system. 16th rounder Derrick Saito out of Cal Poly was once an anomaly for a small LHP pumping low 90's fastballs by Big West foes, but lost his ability to locate his fastball and struggled down the stretch of last season. If he rebounds to regular form he could be a late round steal for the Royals. Excellent job locking up high-end talent for the Royals.

Los Angeles Angels: D+
They lost their first round pick due to the Torri Hunter signing so the available talent was much thinner by the time their first pick (74th overall) came around. Surprisingly, the Angels went for a HS player in Tyler Chatwood who is somewhat undersized, but definitely has the stuff and athleticism to improve. His low 90's fastball compliments an arsenal which includes a plus curveball. With their remaining picks the Angels seemed to feel some pressure to go for over the slot players, but they didn't lock up any super talent. Buddy Boshiers has the projectability to possibly evolve into a solid LHP.

Los Angeles Dodgers: B+
I was a big fan of their first selection of Ethan Martin, and I'm not exactly sure whether his future is brighter as a pitcher or a position player. He has a strong bat, but his mound ability is what the Dodgers were after. After Martin, the dodgers also locked up some quality talent in Josh Lindblom (2nd round), Steven Caseres (9th round) and under appreciated Clayton Allison (27th round). One pick to keep a close eye on is 7th rounder Cole St. Clair who showed signs of dominance while at Rice as a LHP reliever, but suffered arm troubles. He could be a real draft steal. as he was once considered a top talent.

Milwaukee: B+
It's somewhat a catch 22 when you have 6 picks in the first 62 picks of the draft because you a.) want to go after the best talent, but b.) have to be concerned with how much you are spending. In a situation like this its usually best to mix a few signability guys with some high talent question marks. The Brewers were able to sign all of their first 6 picks, avoiding the typical drama that can surround early picks. I would have liked them go for some tougher signs, and take a chance, but regardless, Lawrie, Odorizzi, and Frederickson are excellent picks. All three are likely to be contributors at the major league level. Two later picks who have some serious up side are Logan Schafer from Cal Poly and Erik Komatsu out of Cal State Fullerton. Both are athletic collegiate OF's with advanced approaches to the plate, and the ability to play multiple facets of the game well.

Draft Grades Continued

2008-09-09T09:17:00.000-07:00

Cincinnati: C+
Cincinnati has been very active in the international market which could explain why they fell asleep during the American draft. Yonder Alonso is a solid player, with a huge power upside in Cinci's bandbox, but a Major League deal for a player who is not consensus top 5 doesn't seem like the right choice. Justin Smoak is a better all-around player than Alonso and while he signed for more, he did not demand a Major League deal saving his team money, and a 40-man roster spot over the long haul. The biggest reason the Reds get a good grade is because Zach Stewart is filthy. When he is on, his sink is untouchable, and any level of player will struggle to do much with it. If he can add some durability to his think frame, he could project as a back-end starter. At the very least he should find a role in a Big League bullpen.

Cleveland: B+
The Indians did well in this year's draft. It seems that their front office recognized players they wanted, and were aggressive to both draft and sign them. There are serious question marks surrounding rounder Lonnie Chisenhall's character, but his talent is rarely questioned. Zach Putnam in the 5th was a steal, and although they paid $600,000 he has the type of ceiling that makes you forget about his price tag. TJ House (16th round) was a steal as most teams thought he was undraftable based on a strong commitment to Tulane. Potential sleeper in Eric Berger in the 8th who was a consensus top round talent out of high school, but went to Arizona and is now rebounding nicely from arm surgery. Very solid draft for the Indians.

Colorado: C+
The Rockies didn't do too much in this years draft to leave people impressed. Landing Freidrich at #25 overall is, uh, a steal, to say the least. He was a top 15 talent in my book, and I was surprised to see him fall so far. With that said, they didn't do enough in the later rounds to impress. Somewhat conservative, not taking chances in the later rounds, but one player to keep an eye on is Aaron Weatherford who slipped a little, but is a high-end talent on the hill. Also, shout out to 45th rounder Brad McAtee, a UC Davis alum, who got off to a hot start at short season for the Rockies.

Detroit: C
Their draft was like oatmeal with no fruit or flavor; bland. It seemed that Detroit was looking to put some more flamethrowers in their system taking both Ryan Perry and Cody Satterwhite with early picks. I'm not a big believer in Perry as he seems to offer little more than high velocity. If he is able to harness the command and control of that pitch, he could find success, but he has failed to prove he can do so consistently. Satterwhite, who I like more as a starter than a reliever, has the potential to fit in as a mid-rotation starter with three solid pitches: fastball, curveball, change-up, but he struggles to consistently command those pitches. If Satterwhite can find the right direction in the minors he definetely has the makings of a solid MLB regular.

Florida: C
Florida is another team that regularly drafts players that others don't necessarily agree upon. This year was no different as two picks in particular, Brad Hand and Issac Galloway, showed potential, but seemed like overdrafts at their respective positions. Florida went heavy on HS talent and I do like their choice of Skipworth with the 6th overall selection even though he has struggled in his early professional career. Regardless, I think the Marlins did a good job selecting players "they" liked and not following consensus picks. Shout out to fellow Aggie Bryan Evans as a 14th rounder.

Draft Grades Part 1

2008-09-02T11:14:00.001-07:00

Over the next two weeks I will be providing draft grades for each and every MLB team. Things are subject to change with the controversy surrounding Boras's clients Pedro Alvarez and Eric Hosmer, but for the sake of entertainment, lets assume they both signed with their respective clubs.

Each of the five segments will include 6 teams analysis, and they will be listed in alphabetical order. Feel free to discuss, disagree, or write whatever makes you happy.

Arizona: D+
There isn't much that jumps out from Arizona's 08 draft. I'm sure the front office was somewhat disappointed to see Friedrich go to the Rockies right in front of them considering he should have never slipped that far. However, just like their first round pick in Schlereth, the draft was boring, and seems poised to produce very little high-end talent. Potential sleeper in 13th rounder Ollie Linton who has amazing speed, and has played above his appearence throughout his career.

Atlanta: C-
Nothing entirely impressive with the Brave's draft, but they usually seem to do a better job at scouting prospects than writers do. They always seem to steal a gem from the East Coast, and it looks like either Brett Devall or Zeke Spruill can fill that role this year for the Braves. One player to keep an eye on is Virginia's Jacob Thompson who showed flashes of dominance for Team USA, but had a rough spring at Virginia. He has the potential in his 6-6 frame to bounce back if he can find his command.

Baltimore: B+
Besides Matusz, there are very few players that stand out as surefire stars. However, they got some toolsy high schoolers in LJ Hoes and Bobby Bundy who could blossom into nice players, and when you take the closest thing to a sure thing (Matusz) it gives the scouting team the opportunity to take some high-upside risk. A nice mix of legitimate prospects and some high-ceiling guys. Solid draft.

Boston: A-
No surprise here that the Red Sox has another solid year drafting high-upside players that other teams thought were unsignable, and throwing enough cash their way to put them in the system. I guess you expect to have a solid draft when you pour over $10 million into it, but as high as some are on Casey Kelly, I'm not much of a believer in the $3 million dollar price tag. However, I do think that Hissey, Westmoreland, and Federowicz were solid picks at their relevant position. One sleeper I like is Hunter Cervenka out of Texas who was drafted as a pitcher, but I think his future might be as an OF instead due to reports on a solid display of tools. A lot of questions for the Red Sox when drafting youth, but no doubt a lot of talent to see blossom.

Chicago Cubs: C
Not very impressed with the Cubs haul, and certainly disappointed that a team with deep pockets passed on Christain Frederich from Eastern Kentucky for a Relief Pitcher with terrible control in Cashner. Early reports on Cashner are that they are attempting to put him in a starters role, but he is all over the place. If you read previous articles than you know I really like Aaron Schafer, and I think he was a steal in the 3rd. His pitchability is solid, and coming out of a solid college program look for him to advance quickly through the Cubs system.

Chicago White Sox: F
What are the White Sox's front office brass thinking? After a horrible 07 draft, they follow it up with an excellent first pick, and ludicrous others that negate the fact they got a gift in Beckham at #8. Something is seriously wrong in Chicago as they didn't sign any players who will have an impact at the Major League level. Kenny Williams Jr in the 6th Jordan Danks in the 7th for a combined total of $675,000 ($500,000 for Danks) has to make them the laughing stock of the draft. In Williams the GM is paying his son, and Danks is getting a paycheck based on a skewed freshman year. Get real Chicago.

Draft Thoughts

2008-08-21T12:38:00.000-07:00

A couple of random thoughts after the draft's conclusion

- It's no surprise to me that some of the best drafts came from the teams that spent the most money. The Red Sox, Giants, Rangers, Orioles, and Royals had the best drafts of 08. It's harder to evaluate a draft with a heavy emphasis on high school talent (Red Sox and Royals) than a draft heavy on college talent (Giants). However, in the end I believe the Giants secured the most "likely to succeed" talent with their 8.7 million dollar budgeting, while the Royals barely edged out the Red Sox for the most "talented" draft class spending over 10 million on their draft picks.

- Two teams I'm both surprised and disappointed with include the Yankees and the Nationals.

I believe the Yankees fell into a trap to prove their financial wealth while failing to gauge the likelihood Cole actually "would" sign. While hard to swallow for Pinstripe fans, Cole not signing isn't a lack of financial offering, but rather an ignorant misstep by the front office to factor in both Cole, and his family's desire for him to attend UCLA. Furthermore, the Yankees did very little to secure premium talent in the later rounds, and seemed to settle for players rather than going for some tougher high-end signs.

The Nationals are disappointing for similar reasons, but under a different circumstances. If Jim Bowden's seat wasn't warming his backside before the draft with the International Scandal, it has to be burning by now. Failing to sign your top 10 pick for what the organization calls a "$500,000" difference is absurd. What makes it even more ridiculous is that the draft represents a shining light for a struggling franchise, and the front office decided to simply turn it off. There is no way a premium talent like Aaron Crow should be left out of your organization for 500k. That is petty cash to an organization, and Bowden should be reprimanded for his negotiations throughout the process. Also, reallocating money to JP Ramirez, regardless if he was considered by some to be the best hitter in the state of Texas, is NO, and I repeat NO, consolation prize for the Nationals; especially with a weaker class of talent in this year's draft pool. Very disappointing for an organization that was already in turmoil around the league.

- The last thing I wanted to point out is the resentment from fans around the league about how players, agents, and front office executives posture that "each side is way off in negotiations." Who do you think you are kidding? EVERY year it's the same thing, and there really is no reason for it to change. Both sides stand to lose something substantial in the case they pull a Nationals-like move during the draft. Most players, especially college grads, have little leverage to return for their final season and put up better numbers. High School kids run the risk of entering college, and watching their careers fall apart. Organizations lose 12 months of training, educating, and improving a high end talent in their organization. The best way to handle the situation is celebrate your team's draft pick, forget about it until the week leading up to August 15th, and act surprised to hear of any big name signings that occur before then. Disliking the process is acceptable, but complaining about it, and expecting it to change is pointless.

Each year brings new material.

I've Seen Better Rays

2008-08-11T15:45:00.000-07:00

If there was an important date to mark in the AL East calender that may ultimately decide the race it would be August 11th. As of today, the Rays will be sending both Evan Longoria, and Carl Crawford to the DL. Lets take a look at why that may be of some importance.

If you followed the blog for most of the year you are aware that I have never relinquished my belief that the Yankees would somehow find a way to win the AL East. What makes it more difficult for me to stick by those guns is growing up on the West Coast, I have always despised the way Yankee fans overvalue their team. Nonetheless, I find myself still believing in them with little over a month to go in the regular season, and them staring at a 8.5 game deficit. But Why?

I just never believed the Rays had the depth to sustain any major injuries, and it appeared to me all season that Boston had issues (Manny Ramirez). Even though the Rays have played consistently well, except for a brief 7 game hiccup, and the Red Sox acquisition of Jason Bay seems to be working out nicely I can't jump on the boat, and thus, am left in the murky waters that are known as Yankee Lake.

Losing two of your largest offensive contributors in Crawford and Longoria is going to be a difficult obstacle to overcome. Furthermore, Longoria's presence as a leader by example on the field, and his phenomenal defense are going to be greatly missed. I understand Willy Aybar filled in with 2 Home Runs last night, but this is Willy Aybar we're talking about. Without these two catalysts in the lineup, I would be surprised if Tampa Bay is able to play over .500 for the next 15 games. I'm going to predict that in their next 15 games their record will be: 5-10.

The Red Sox on the other hand don't seem to be troubled by any injuries. They are healthy, mind and body, thanks to Manny's departure, and looking strong. However, the problem I continue to have with them is whether or not Manny's calm, "I'm better than you" approach will be missed down the stretch of a pennant race. It is difficult to rely on the likes of JD Drew and Jason Bay to lead your team to victory. Yes, I am aware that I left out Papi, and I did this because even though I noted they were healthy, I think his wrist is still bothering him, and will continue to bother him the rest of the year.

So where does that leave me? Right back into the Pennant race riding the Yankee Boat. Hopefully New York realizes their opportunity to gain valuable games in both the pennant race, and the wild card during Tampa's misfortunes because if this boat starts to sink, I'm not handing out life jackets.

Getting Some Love at Baseball America

2008-07-21T16:11:00.000-07:00

Jim Callis, one of the editors at Baseball America does a weekly segment on their site called Ask BA. This week's segment featured a question from none other than myself. Follow the link to check it out:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/266544.html

Revisiting the Top 100 Prospects

2008-07-19T12:24:00.000-07:00

Earlier in the year I did my analysis of Keith Law's top 100 prospects. Most lists typically have a large number of similar prospects amongst their top 100 with some different slotting, but Keith prefers to do his own scouting in order to make a list which tends to create a slightly different perspective.

However, I wanted to highlight some of my hits and misses as we re-examine how some of the prospects are doing this year. The article I am discussing can be seen here: http://themlbeat.blogspot.com/2008/02/keith-law-releases-top-100-prospects.html

Predictions I got Right:
-Desmond Jennings at #11: I said he was "a stretch" this high, and his performance this year has certainly proven that correct. He is now out for the year with a shoulder injury.
-Jayson Heyward at #33: I tabbed him as my favorite player of the 07 draft and called him "special." He is arguably one of my favorite prospects in the game, and I felt Keith had him much too low. I put him in the 10-15 range, and in a recent chat Keith commented that Heyward was a "top 10 prospect right now."
-Ian Stewart at #70: Stewart certainly didn't disappoint in the minor league slugging over .600 for the season, but his 55 AB's in the Majors were frustrating. I think it is obvious that his down year last year was a result of a struggle not a lack of talent , and I suppose he will advance in the rankings or possibly be ineligible come next year

Predictions I got Wrong:
-Geovany Soto at #32: I never believed in Soto's season from last year in the minors. It was so out of the ordinary compared to his previous seasons that I just didn't believe, but I was WRONG and I will admit it. Soto has impressed this year for the first place Cubbies, and proven me wrong. I do expect a slight regression in the second half due to a full-season of catching wear and tear, but nonetheless Soto has been impressive.
-Ross Detwiler at#51: His velocity has been down this year raising questions about his durability and health. It has also been reported that his stuff is not as sharp as previously seen. It has been a rough year for Ross, and I expect he may possibly slide out of the top 100, but I still feel he has supreme talent, and if he figures out his issues can bounce back nicely. However, I was wrong to place him in the "25 player prospect range."

Undecided On:
-Mike Moustakas at #47: The tools are there, but the performance is volatile. He shows stretches of improvement and ultimate talent, but follows it up quickly with expressions of his youth. I'm still leaning toward star, but this year's performance has done nothing to sway me in either direction. A strong second half in the Midwest League could really help his prospect status.

Adjusted Playoff and World Series Predictions

2008-07-17T15:53:00.000-07:00

After seeing the first half some things have changed. I never was on the Indian bandwagon, but with the departure of CC it looks like the wheels have fallen off. I expected a progression from the Rays, maybe 85 wins, but this was more than I expected. Lets take a look at who I think will win each division and eventually end up the 2009 World Series Champion.

Divisional Winners-
AL:
East: Yankees (The Rays will not win more than 88 games this year, and I think there is something missing with the Sox)

Central: Tigers (Call me crazy, but the Chi Sox are not for real, especially Floyd and Contreras)

West: Angels (There just isn't anyone who can compete after Oakland sale)

Wild Card: Red Sox (Do you really think the Rays will edge them in September?)

NL:
East: Phillies (Flash in the pan Mets fall to a superior team. Read earlier article "He Said, He Said for details)

Central: Brewers (Love the schedule, don't believe in Harden's health or success of staff)

West: Diamondbacks (Dodgers can't stay healthy, but no team really excites me here, well that is TBD)

Wild Card: Cubs (Don't worry Wrigley faithful, the run differential is good and your Cubbies will be there, just not as a division leader)

Divisional Series-
AL:
Angels over Red Sox
Yankees over Tigers

NL:
Cubs over Phillies
Brewers over Diamondbacks

League Championship Series-
AL:
Yankees over Angels
NL:
Cubs over Brewers

...World Series Champions...
Yankees over Cubs in 7 game series (Best ratings for a World Series ever)

First Half Awards

2008-07-14T16:15:00.000-07:00

The All Star break is upon us, and with Major League's official break of the not-so-midpoint of the season, we are allowed the time to reflect on the first half. It has been one of the most exciting years in baseball as the parity of the league continues to level with frequent cellar dweller the Tampa Bay Rays in contention to win the AL's most competitive division this year. Furthermore, every division has at least 3 teams within 7.5 games of one another (I use the 7 games as a barometer because thanks to the Met's collapse last year, we know how valuable 7 games can be).

These awards are presented to individuals based on their performances in the first half of the year, and are by no means a reflection of my predictions for the second half (that will be another article coming soon). Explanations will be provided for each and every choice, and I encourage you to disagree with me granted you provide sound reasoning...

American League:
MVP- Ian Kinsler over Josh Hamilton

It was a difficult choice between the stellar Kinsler or my man-crush Josh Hamilton. When it comes down to it, Kinsler's ability to get on base and create runs for the potent Texas lineup exceeds Hamilton's ability to drive him in. RBI is a category I happen to believe is largely contingent on lineup placement, and thus, needs to be slightly less valued, unless you need it in fantasy leagues. Looking at more telling statistics such as runs created, OPS+, and VORP it becomes apparent that Kinsler has created 92 runs with an OPS+ of 152, and the Major's 4th best VORP at 52.4. Hamilton line reads 80 runs created, an OPS+ of 144, and the Major's 12th best VORP. Both of these players have had terrific seasons thusfar while also providing above average defense at their respectable positions. However, Kinsler's production has exceeded Hamilton's and putting the lowly Ranger's 4 games over .500 at the break is the reason Ian Kinsler deserves the AL's first half MVP award.

Cy Young- Cliff Lee over Roy Halladay

He's back! After a horrendous 07, Cliff Lee has returned to show the promise he once was regarded for years prior. There hasn't been one Pitcher who has had as much of a dominant first half of 08 as Lee. It's hard to argue against Halladay and his 7 Complete Games, but Lee exceeds Halladay in VORP, ERA+, Wins, and ERA while also having a higher BABIP than Halladay, which means Lee's stats are actually a tick less lucky than Halladay's. It is unfortunate that both these pitchers play for teams not necessarily in their divisional races, but pitching once every 5 games should not count against them. Cliff Lee deserves this award, but Halladay also deserves his recognition.

Rookie of the Year- Evan Longoria (enough said)

Manager of the Year- Joe Maddon

The Rays are 16 games over .500 at the All Star break and have competed since opening day in baseball's toughest division. Any other pick would be an atrocity to the award.

National League:
MVP- Hanley Ramirez over Lance Berkman and Chase Utley
Seems that I may be the only one riding this train, but I don't care. We all know Hanley's defense at SS is mediocre at best, but his offensive consistency and production is hard to overlook. Hanley's VORP, at 55.3 falls behind both Berkman's and Chipper Jones's, but Hanley's team is also competing in their division with a roster full of league average salaries. Utley's team in leading their division and looks poised for a second half run, but he also has the last two MVP's sharing a clubhouse with him. Furthermore, Hanley's OPS+ is ahead of Utley's at 153, but falls short of Berkman's stellar 188. That of course is partially inflated by his high average. I will agree with any arguement that Berkman's "statistical" season has been better than Hanley's, but it has been Hanley's undeniable ability and value to his team that has lifted the major's lowest payroll to contention in the best division in the National League. Hanley Ramirez deserves this award.

Cy Young- Tim Lincecum over Brandon Webb and Edinson Volquez
Get off the Webb bandwagon. Get off. Webb is a great pitcher, but he often gets a little too much credit because he is able to put together some of the most dominating stretches we have seen. He pitches to contact, and induces ground balls, but his statistical performances are nothing in line with Lincecum and Volquez. Yes he has 2 more wins than Lincecum and 1 more win than Volquez, but he also plays on much better teams. His ERA is about 1 run higher than either of the other two candidates, and his ERA+ is 140 compared to Lincecum's 166, and Volquez's 195. What really defines Lincecum as this season's first half Cy Young is two things: his VORP of 41.5, and his 9 wins that have followed a San Francisco loss. When you evaluate value of a Starting Pitcher, you have to be amazed by the ability of one pitcher to seemingly always end a losing streak. Webb deserves less credit than given, Volquez deserves more, but in the end Lincecum's value and domination in the first half of the season deserves recognition as the first half Cy Young.

Rookie of the Year- Geovany Soto over Jair Jurrjens
Soto's first half has exceeded my expectations for him when I rated him as a prospect. I wasn't a believer in his bat, but he seems to have that as a legitimate tool. It should not go without mention that Jurrjens has been phenomenal for the Braves since coming over from Detroit in the Renteria trade especially considering Smoltz's season ending injury. However, Soto's impact as an everyday player at the catching position for the Major League's best team makes him the clear choice for the first half's ROY.

Manager of the Year- Freddi Gonzalez over Lou Pinella
It would be easy to take Sweet Lou after leading his team to the best 1st half record, but what Freddi Gonzalez has been able to do with a roster chalked full of no-namers and minimum salaries has gone under-appreciated. It seems like the credentials of a Florida Marlins manager should always read: "Able to maximize player talent." This has been no exception this year. Both of these managers have done an excellent job managing the talent of their teams, but for the Gonzalez's accomplishments are much more appreciable considering his lack of resources.

Maple Bat Controversy

2008-06-26T13:07:00.001-07:00

After reading Buster Olney's piece yesterday on espn.com, which can be read at the link at the bottom of the page, I had to make a comment.

It seems that writers, and Americans in general have become much too hypocritical of negative consequences. This is the game of baseball, and granted there have been numerous accidental deaths over the course of the game's history, the likelihood of a serious injury still remains bleak.

However, I do agree with Buster to a certain extent. Are maple bats dangerous? Yes. Is there potential for someone to get seriously injured? Yes. But where we differ is in the folloing question: Should this "fear" be a reason to alter the game of baseball? Absolutely not.

All wooden bats shatter, regardless if they are maple or not, and those too run the risk of hitting a fan in the stands. Obviously we can't move to aluminum because the velocity of the ball off the bat would be too dangerous. Not to be overly cynical, but should we create a new form of a bat to ensure everyone's utmost safety?

Lets face it, Maple, Ash, or any other type of wood bat have the potential to break. It is a hazard that has long been associated with the game, and any innocent fan, umpire, coach, or player that is struck by a shard or broken piece, my apologies. However, with the incorporation of instant replay on the horizon, and 3rd and 1st base coaches already required to wear helmets, I'm not ready to continue reforming rules for safety purposes.

We pay these players a lot to perform for our entertainment. Continually inhibiting their aptitude for performance by slapping on ludicrous rules is nonsense. Lets take a second for introspection before we find ourselves, 5 years down the road creating a "softer" baseball because the hardball has become "too dangerous".

Follow this link to see Olney's full story:
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3459887&name=olney_buster&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d3459887%26name%3dolney_buster

2008 Draft: 5 Players Who Will Make It

2008-06-21T13:57:00.000-07:00

After a long break from blogging, due in large part to my breaking of two computers in one week, I hope to be able to provide at least one post a week to share my thoughts with the baseball community.

In order to break back in, I might as well give my take on 5 players taken in the 2008 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft that I believe are the most likely to be Major League regulars or potential stars.

1.) Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (1B): I first saw Hosmer, the 3rd overall selection, in the AFLAC All-American game, and he didn't stand out much to me. However, as his high school season progressed, and the more video I could see on the kid, the more I realized the future this kid has.

There are some ball players that just look natural when they play the game, and Hosmer is no exception. His swing is borderline beautiful, and the natural loft of his swing path makes the 70 Power scouts graded him much more enticing. I believe Hosmer will be the most powerful hitter taken in this draft, and also has a chance to move to a corner OF position, in the mode of Brewers prospect Matt LaPorta. He is a high school draftee so KC has plenty of time to groom him. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see 35+ HR seasons for many years in KC.

ETA: 2011

2.) Justin Smoak, Texas Rangers (1B): Smoak, the 11th overall selection, is undoubtedly my pick for the most value at drafted position. Although many analysts have pointed to Friedrich to the Rockies at 25, I think Smoak slipping out of the top 6 is remarkable.

In a deep class of 1B, as noted by my #1 pick Hosmer, Smoak may be the most complete player. He has been a standout for 3 years at South Carolina, and also proven his ability to handle wood with Team USA. He plays above average defense, and seems to handle himself with an admirable level of maturity.

What makes Smoak rank so high on this list is his ability to drive the ball from both sides of the plate. He has an effortless swing from both sides that generated plus power. He also has the ability to make contact against solid competition. Although a bold comparison, I truly feel that Smoak will represent a former Ranger 1B, Mark Texiera, and provide a potent bat to go along with Gold Glove defense at Arlington's 1B for many years.

ETA: 2009

3.) Conor Gillaspie, San Francisco Giants (3B): A sandwich round pick as the 37th overall selection, Gillaspie has the chance to rocket through a depleted Giants system. It's ironical he makes this list because he doesn't flash any "plus-plus" tools, but there is something special about the way he plays the game.

Gillaspie has a professional approach at the plate to compliment a high-contact swing that generates gap to gap power. His defense has been graded out as average, but he has the necessary athleticism to improve at the hot corner. Gillaspie is the type of player that somewhat flies under the radar, but provides solid production year in, and year out.

He reminds me a lot of a player like Kevin Youkilis. I believe Gillapie will take a fair share of walks, for a solid average, and consistently put up 20-25 HR each year.

ETA: 2010

4.) Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburg Pirates (3B): This is an obvious choice as he was the 2nd overall pick, but it must be said that Pedro is likely to be a special player. As the pre-season favorite to be the #1 overall selection, his stock somewhat slipped after a series of injuries. He rebounded slightly to show scouts the tools that had him previously ranked so high.

Many see his as a solid average, above-average power guy, but I'm not a believer in his ability to hit for Avg. I think he strikes out too much, and plenty of pitchers have been able to deceive him with off-speed pitches. I think Pedro has 35 HR power, but I would be surprised to see an Avg. above .275 at the Major League level. The other concern is his inability to play 3B as he may have to move to the OF. Either way, his bat should succeed at the lower levels and he will most likely be given a chance to play for the lowly Pirates soon.

ETA: 2009

5.) Aaron Schafer, Chicago Cubs (SP): The Witchita State product was selected 65th overall by the Cubs, and while his name may be somewhat unrecognizable, he has the potential to be a solid Major Leaguer.

If there is one thing we are seeing with Major League Pitching is that pitchers with solid sinkers can get outs. Schafer has shown flashes of a plus sinker, and has rarely struggled to find the strike zone. Because of this, he should be able to quietly succeed at all levels.

Worst case scenario for Schafer would to become a Major League reliever able to locate a sinker and get RH batters out, but I think he will surprise many people, and fulfill his expectations to become a mainstay in the Chicago Cubs rotation.

ETA: 2011

World Series 08

2008-04-12T17:54:00.000-07:00

Let me just get this down in writing before it's too late, and I look like a band wagoner. I have been talking with friends about two sets of World Series Predictions since Spring Training began, so without any more delaying, here they are:

Your 2008 SLEEPER World Series Predictions:

Houston Astros

VS.
Toronto Blue Jays

Outcome: The Blue Jays defeat the Astros in a 6 game series that heavily relied on the Blue Jays stellar Pitching Staff shutting down an Astros offense that made a late season surge to catapult them to the playoffs. (Don't ask me where the Astros Pitching is going to come from)

Your 2008 LIKELY World Series Predictions:

New York Yankees
VS.
Arizona Diamondbacks

Outcome: The Arizona Diamondbacks get out to a quick 2-0 series lead, but are eventually denied as the Yankees take the next 3 of 4, culminating the last series ever played in the historic Yankee Season. Joe Girardi gets his wish as the 27th Championship banner is waved, matching his jersey number choice for the season, and Joe Buck and Tim Carver nearly have simultaneous orgasms in the booth with the unbelievable story lines they get to discuss during the 08 Series.

By the way, having a blog is way too much fun

Team A-Rod?

2008-04-02T15:37:00.000-07:00

It’s funny how far a dollar can go in the Major Leagues. Below is a “TEAM” of players who salaries combined will add up to approximately 27.5-30 million dollars, or the amount the New York Yankees will be paying Alex Rodriguez this year.

Players will be listed by position with their 08 salaries in parentheses. Prepare to be amazed.

LF- Ryan Braun ($380,000)

CF- Grady Sizemore ($3,000,000)

RF- Nick Markakis ($455,000)

3B- Ryan Zimmerman ($400,000)

SS- Hanley Ramirez ($439,000)

2B- Kelly Johnson ($400,000)

1B- Prince Fielder ($415,000)

C- Russel Martin ($387,500)

SP- Brandon Webb ($5,500,000)

SP- Scott Kazmir ($3,875,000)

SP- Matt Cain ($650,000)

SP- Fausto Carmona ($387,500)

SP- Cole Hamels ($400,000)

RHSU- Jonathan Broxton ($390,000)

LHSU- Rafael Perez ($381,000)

CL- Jonathan Papelbon ($655,000)

Total Estimated Cost of Starting Line-up: $18,115,000

If you are like me, you can begin laughing out loud right now… Ok, that’s enough. I understand many of the arguments that will be made about this piece, but lets be real, and take it for how it is: it’s pretty darn amazing.

I agree that Alex Rodriguez is the best player in the game. He is a model of consistency, and the stability of production he provides every year is unmatched. However, the point of this piece is not to criticize A Rod, but rather to show the immense value there is when a team develops homegrown talent.

I also understand that these deals are somewhat unrealistic as each year after 08, their salaries will rise. That is a valid point, but as we are looking at it for 08, with a team like this I don’t know how you could not be expected to compete for a World Championship.

Furthermore, it is important to note that most of these players can be replaced with very similar players that hover around the same salary range. This particular case was just a personal choice of players I felt represented the goal of this piece.

It is also important to point out that I left off “9” additional players to round out the 25-man roster that Major League clubs carry. However, if we calculate a base salary of $500,000 for each additional player, we total $22,615,000 which is still roughly $5,000,000 short of Rodriguez’s 08 salary.

There is no guarantee a team can develop these types of talent, but then again can we deny the possibility? I truly feel baseball is moving into a new direction as we continue to see immense amounts of supreme young talent reaching the big leagues. Bill James quotes in his handbook that “he can’t remember a time when this much young talent was successful in the Major Leagues.”

I couldn’t agree with Mr. James anymore, and the teams that jump on the youth train, are the teams that will continue to reap the benefits of dominating the highly competitive playing field that is the Major Leagues. So while teams go out and sign high priced free agents, I will be rooting for the teams that sit back and invest their money in the draft and the international market. Who knows, you might even be able to sign the next Alex Rodriguez for the league minimum. How ironical.

*All salary information was used from a combination of information pulled from foxsports.com and mlb4u.com*

Hats off to the Journeyman

2008-03-29T11:20:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the long delay between posts, but we should be seeing more regular content from now on. One of the reasons there has been such a delay is that I recently spent 5 days in Arizona watching Cactus League play, and had no available internet. My visit there will be the basis for the next few posts.

As I’m sitting on the bleachers, soaking up the powerful Arizona sun at the Giants Minor League complex, a player catches my eye. It’s batting practice, and I’m watching balls soar out of the park. Right Center, Center, Left Field. It didn’t really matter how the wind was blowing because these balls were long gone.

I get up to take a better look and figure out who in the world is hitting these balls. The jersey reads McClain? McLain I think. I swear I have heard that name before. It takes a moment for my brain to register, but then it clicks.

This is Scott McClain, the 35 year old career journeyman that the Giants signed as a free agent last year. This is Scott’s 8^th organization he has been with during his 17 year career after signing out if a Simi Valley high school as an 18 year old. No big deal.

It makes you think: How is it possible that a 35 year old is still playing for that dream after only seeing 45 Major League AB’s in 17 years? Don’t you think after that long you would figure the dream is over. You find the answer when you take a look at Scott’s statistical production in the minors.

34, 28, 25, 30, 28, 31. Those are McClain’s HR totals in his last 6 seasons in AAA. Scott even performed well enough to win the Pacific Coast League’s MVP in 06. Of course the A’s, his employer at the time, were generous enough to reward him by releasing him. Seems like the right thing to do right? No big deal.

Scott McClain can hit the long ball. If I wasn’t already convinced by his statistics, watching him play during Spring Training made me a believer. Some players have a special sound when the ball hits their bat, and McClain has it.

There is an outside chance he will see some Major League AB’s this season as he is certainly a member of the least offensively talented organization in all of baseball: The San Francisco Giants.

Even if the Giants, or any other organization Scott has played for the last 17 years, don’t want to appreciate his ability, I will. Thank you Scott for keeping the dream alive, for playing hard, and continuing to work for something few teams have made available to you. You certainly have talent, and it is unfortunate that the organizations you have been a part of have wasted that talent.

Now it’s game time at the complex, and I get to see Scott step up to the plate for 2 AB’s. First AB- Deep HR to left field. Second AB- Blast off the huge wall in center. I laugh to myself and think: Scott better not take a pitch deep his next AB or the Giants, like other teams in the past, may just have to cut him. No big deal though, right?

The Arizona Diamondbacks

2008-03-11T22:25:00.000-07:00

Arizona Diamondbacks (07’ Record: 90-72):

Expected 08 Starting Roster:

LF- Eric Byrnes

CF- Chris B. Young

RF- Justin Upton

3B- Mark Reynolds

SS- Stephen Drew

2B- Orlando Hudson

1B- Connor Jackson

C- Chris Snyder

SP- Brandon Webb

SP- Randy Johnson

SP- Dan Haren

SP- Doug Davis

SP- Micah Owings

SU- Tony Pena

CL- Brandon Lyon

Brief History with 08 Expectations:

It is hard not to tip your cap to this franchise. One year after being granted access as an expansion team in 1998, the Diamondbacks went on to win an impressive 100 games in 1999. Not long after, the Diamondbacks defeated the New York Yankees in a thrilling World Series to become champions of baseball in 2001.

Following the 01 season was one season of solid baseball (02), three seasons of mediocrity (03, 04, 05), and one season of bad fortunes (06). This is mentioned because during those seasons of mediocrity and bad fortunes, the Diamondbacks avoided signing free agents that would have cost them valuable draft picks, and instead invested top dollars in securing high ceiling talents in the draft.

Their current starting roster and pitching rotation, as mentioned above, is comprised of eight homegrown talents that were drafted and brought up through the organization (Drew, Reynolds, Snyder, Jackson, Upton, Webb, Owings, and Pena). That is an astonishing number considering the Diamondbacks were once again able to win the division last year with quite the similar lineup. The only addition to their Major League roster comes in the form of a potential Ace in Dan Haren. No starters outside of Closer Jose Valverde from last year’s team have departed this offseason.

What makes the Diamondbacks even more impressive is that their core of positional players are young. Typically, these players will get better, which in turn makes their team better.

The Diamondbacks have constructed a young slugging lineup that is also capable of playing excellent defense. Their park is constructed for sluggers, and they definitely showed that they can hit with anyone else in the league.

One of the largest knocks on the Diamondbacks 07 division winning run was that they had a poor run differential for a division leader. This basically meant that their total runs scored on the season barely exceeded that of their opponents. Granted this is a particular statistic, but it did show that the Diamondbacks did not dominate the division, but rather won it by a narrow margin.

Outlook for 08:

I’m a big fan of the youth movement, and it comes as no surprise as I expect the Diamondbacks to be a serious contender in 08. Looking at their brief historical past, they have always seem to have a solid 3-4 year run, followed by a brief drop off, and then a return to prominence. After showcasing a solid blend of talent in 07, I think they are well on their way to returning to prominence.

The addition of Dan Haren gives them a solid core of starters with the potential to have three Ace-quality pitchers if Randy Johnson can maintain his health for the entire year. The bullpen will be somewhat of a question mark as they unloaded Jose Valverde, one of the top closers in saves last year.

I expect players such as Connor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, and Chris B. Young to continue their progression as young players, and take large steps forward. There is a certain volatility with relying on such young players to provide consistent production, but I am a firm believer in the product they have produced. Because of this, I expect the Diamondbacks to finish where they left off last year as NL West Champions.

The Next Wave:

After graduating most of their young talent into the Major Leagues, and losing a few of their top prospects in the Dan Haren trade, the Diamondbacks do not have the impact players that their system once possessed.

Much of their talent, including top prospects Parker and Geraldo Parra haven't played above A ball and look like they are at least 2+ seasons away.

The only immediate player that seems ready to contribute is RHP Max Scherzer who the Diamondbacks selected with their first pick in the 06 draft. Scouts have mixed reviews on his potential impact, but look for him to make a solid contribution to this contending club.

Diamondback’s 2008 Expected Finish: 1^st in the NL West

Profiling the NL West: The Los Angeles Dodgers

2008-03-06T18:08:00.000-08:00

Los Angeles Dodgers (07’ Record: 82-80):

Expected 08 Starting Roster:

LF- Juan Pierre

CF- Andruw Jones

RF- Matt Kemp

3B- Nomar Garciaparra

SS- Rafael Furcal

2B- Jeff Kent

1B- James Loney

C- Russel Martin

SP- Brad Penny

SP- Derek Lowe

SP- Chad Billingsley

SP- Hideki Kurodu

SP- Esteban Loaiza/ Jason Schmidt

SU- Jonathan Bronxton

CL- Takashi Saito

Brief History with 08 Expectaitons:

There are few storied franchises like the Dodgers. Obviously if you are a Giant fan, you hate to hear those words, but the rivalry has been enjoyed for many years since their first battle in 1960.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers seem to be moving in the right direction, while the Giants are seemingly regressing. Able to make big splashed in free agency, in compliments with signing high priced amateur players, the Dodgers have set their team up nicely for a successful run.

Many point the finger at the Dodger’s lack of a “common goal” last year as the reason for their misfortunes. There is an apparent riff between the veterans, and they plethora of young talent waiting in the wings. As with most occupations, current employees tend to feel threatened when they see young talented individuals working their way up to their position. The Dodgers are no different.

The Dodgers made two large splashed this offseason in free agency locking up Gold Glove CF Andruw Jones, and also inking top Japanese pitching prospect Hideki Kurodu. They also brought in the former Yankee manager Joe Torre to provide some savvy experience to a talented ball club.

One of the biggest criticisms of the Dodger organization is their lack of motivation to bench their overpriced stars and allow the talented next wave of players to garner a full workload. Players like Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Andy LaRoche, and James Loney have battled, or are still battling for a position when there are many team in the MLB that would love to have these players as full-time regulars on their club.

They ranked 21^st in runs scored in 07, while pitching to the tune of the 10^th best ERA in the league while remaining a top 5 team defensively. The additions of Jones in CF, and Kurodu to the rotation, complimented by the potential for Jason Schmidt to bounce back healthy leaves the Dodgers with an upgrade across the board.

Their 21^st ranked offense is expected to improve as they continue to give bats to their young stars.

The Next Wave:

The Dodgers have committed to creating one of the best organizational systems in the Major Leagues. There is plenty of talent, both readily available, or further away from being ready that will contribute at the Major League level soon.

Clayton Kershaw, arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball is a LHP prodigy who seems near ready to make the jump to the Big Leagues by the end of 08.

Andy LaRoche, mentioned above, is another prospect on the cusp of becoming an everyday 3B, but is blocked by the aging Garciaparra.

Chin-Lung Hu is a defensive wiz who could definitely fill in as a defensive specialist at the major league level.

This list could certainly mention a few more talented youngsters such as LHP Scott Elbert, RHP Chris Withrow, OF Delwyn Young, and RHP Jonathan Meloan, but you can take a look at some of these players in your own time.

Outlook for 08:

If the Dodgers decide they want to be a team that serves their youth, and forgets about the fact that they are paying veterans such as Pierre and Garciaparra too much money, they could have a legitimate shot to contend.

Past experience tells us that GM Ned Colletti will force Manager Joe Torre to continue playing the vets over the young studs.

The Dodger’s pitching staff is deep, and shows signs of dominance. There are plenty of young arms rising through the system to replenish any injuries that may occur over the course of the season. Their 1-2 punch at the end of the game between Bronxton and Saito is one of the best in baseball. This team could do some damage in 08.

Dodger’s 2008 Expected Finish: Tied for 2^nd in the NL West

Profiling the NL West: The San Diego Padres

2008-03-04T19:23:00.000-08:00

This is part 1 of a 5 part series in which I will analyze each team in the NL West. It is my belief that the NL West is, and will be the most competitive division in baseball in the 08 season. I expect four of the five teams to compete for the division title for the entire season.

Each article will feature a team in "random order" from where I expect them to finish within the division so each new article will be a surprise.

Below is the first team of the series: The San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres:

Expected 08 Starting Roster:

LF- Scott Hairston

CF- Jim Edmonds

RF- Brian Giles

3B- Kevin Kouzmanoff

SS- Khalil Greene

2B- Tadahito Iguchi

1B- Adrian Gonzalez

C- Josh Bard/Michael Barret

SP- Jake Peavy

SP- Chris Young

SP- Greg Maddux

SP- Randy Wolf

SP- Mark Prior

SU- Heath Bell

CL- Trevor Hoffman

Brief History with 08 Expectations (07’ Record: 89-74):

The San Diego Padres have enjoyed a nice stay competing at the top of the NL West for the last four years. Prior to their 87 win campaign in 2004, the Padres had not had a winning season since 1998. Much of their success can be contributed to a push by the front office, led by General Manager Kevin Towers, to move toward developing more homegrown talent, but mainly by securing young talented baseball players via trade.

The current depth chart provided by the San Diego Padres includes only one homegrown positional player in Khalil Greene. The Clemson college product has been a fixture at SS since he was drafted with the 13^th pick in the 2002 Amateur Baseball Draft.

The only other integral player grown on the farm in San Diego is pitcher Jake Peavy, the 2007 NL Cy Young award winner. A solid pick by the Padres as Peavy was their 15^th round selection out of an Alabama high school in the 1999 Amateur Draft.

The Padres 08 season will heavily rely on their ability to pitch. Like most other clubs in the NL West, San Diego has realized the important of pitching in the division, and has set their team up for success by possessing at least two dominant starters in Peavy and Chris Young. Their #3 slot will be occupied by one of the greatest pitchers to ever play in Greg Maddux, but he is aging and is not quite the pitcher he once was earlier in his career. Their #4 and #5 starters, Randy Wolf and Mark Prior are somewhat wildcards in that both have possessed the ability to dominate in their careers, but have also been derailed by serious injuries in the last couple of years.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Padres have created a team that fits the need of their expansive ballpark. PETCO Field is the definition of a “Pitcher’s Park” as it has been the park with the least amount of runs scored the past 3 full seasons. This is most likely contributed to the fact that PETCO is an abnormally large home field. Because of this, GM Kevin Towers and his staff has sought after high On Base Percentage hitters who look to drive the ball gap-to-gap rather than out of the park.

Led by savvy veterans Brian Giles, and the recently acquired Jim Edmonds, the Padres have allowed their younger hitters to blossom. Adrian Gonzalez, the onetime first player selected in the draft had a breakout season in 07, and many executives believe he will continue in 08. Similar to Gonzalez, both Kevin Kouzmanoff and Khalil Greene showed signs of improvement, and are expected to continue that path in 08.

No other positional player stands out for a breakout season, as the Padres are not built to accompany offensive superstars. Instead they will heavily rely on their pitching staff to keep the games low scoring, and allow their defense to keep the games close.

Outlook for 08: If the Padres don’t pitch well, they will struggle to win games. It isn’t expected for them to score a lot of runs, especially considering they play half their games in PETCO Park, but of they can manufacture runs, and allow their defense and pitching to carry their team they have a chance to compete for the division title.

Randy Wolf and Mark Prior will be two major players to watch in 08 as their health and performance could serve as a strong indicator as to whether or not they can succeed this season.

The Next Wave: As noted earlier, Kevin Towers has done an excellent job acquiring young talent. Most of the players he has received via trade have already made it to the Major Leagues but there are a few who have a chance to contribute in 08.

Chase Headley is their top prospect, but is currently blocked by 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff. Some sources have indicated he could move to the outfield, but he certainly seems like their long term solution at 3B. His bat seems Major League ready, but with no open position he might be delayed.

Another player to note in the Padre’s system is 2B prospect Matt Antonelli. Like Headley, there has been talk about moving Antonelli to the OF where he would be more likely to see time. His bat seems Major League ready, and he is definitely more athletic than Headley making it likely he could adjust to any OF position.

Padre’s 2008 Expected Finish: (86-76) 4^th in the NL West

"Bonds"less Baseball

2008-02-25T12:19:00.000-08:00

With 3 days to go until full rosters are expected to report to their respected Spring Training camps, there is still no team for the Home Run King: Barry Bonds. While many people point to his legal woes as a threat to his 08 status, lets examine the pros and cons associated with the game's greatest slugger. (As a brief note: some of the information used has been taken from ESPN writer Buster Olney's article this morning. There will be a link to that article at the bottom of the page.)

Player:
Barry Lamar Bonds
Born: July 24, 1964 (Currently 43 Years old)
21 Major League Seasons
All Time Home Run King

Pros:
1.) Production: While is defense is abysmal at this point, there is no denying his offensive production could be appreciated by many teams. Lets take a look at a few projections from some of my favorites:

-->Dan Szymborski Zips: .256 AVG, .456 OBP, .974 OPS, 22 HR, RC27 9.2

-->PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus): .248 AVG, .419 OBP, .897 OPS, 21 HR, WARP 3.2

--> Bill James: .284 AVG, .491 OBP, 1.079 OPS, 26 HR, RC27 10.4

Some of these numbers aren't all that impressive, but I can't get over Bill James's projection of a 1.000+ OPS. That would be an incredible season for a 43 year old.

2.) Experience: The Rays are often considered one of the most talented young core of players that the MLB has to offer in the near future. Having a player of Bonds's caliber around to influence the young talent, and teach valuable lessons would be an amazingly large contribution. However, nobody knows if Bonds would be willing to do this, and there is risk associated with thinking this way. That will be discussed in the cons section.

3.) Fan Draw: Lets be honest, the only people that really care about steroids and PED's in baseball are the writers. Fans do not care. Fans do not care. Fans do not care. As soon as Bonds joined their team, most fans would relinquish their past hate toward the home run king, and embrace him. No writer will tell you that because that in itself would ruin a lot of their fore-casted stories in the future. With Bonds approaching the 3,000 hit mark, surely fans would come to the ballpark to see history.

4.) This is Barry Bonds: This could be linked in with the fan draw, but I felt it deserved its own category. This is the greatest player of all-time who may or may not have taken performance enhancing drugs in an era where we have "no clue" who was a definitive user, and who wasn't. I think people will look back on this era and feel disappointed that they discredited some of the greatest baseball we have ever seen played.

Cons:
1.) Performance: Bonds can provide some contribution to a Major League club. The ZIPS and the PECOTA projections seem to be more conservative than Bill James's predictions, but in all nothing stands out outside of the high OBP and OPS (similarly related). His WARP at 3.2 isn't much of an upgrade over the league average player. If Bonds remains only a DH his overall performance will be better because his liability in the field will not come into effect. However, you have to wonder if the investment in Bonds would block the development of any current young players on a team, which leads to the next major con.

2.) Playing Time: Is one year of Bonds worth getting rid of a player who has shown he has potential to be a Major League regular? Bringing Bonds into a scenario in which he blocks the development of youth can be detrimental to an organization. He doesn't seem to have much more than a year left, and I don't feel he would make much sense to an organization that didn't feel they had a legitimate shot at contention or had problems drawing fans to the ball park and currently had no LF/DH prospects Bonds would block.

3.) Salary: I think it would be interesting to see what teams would be willing to pay the vet. He made nearly 17 million in 07, and it would seem that number will take a large drop in 08. I can't imagine Bonds making over 10 million as a base salary, but I could see an organization woo him in with an attractive performance escalators bonus clause. The problem with paying him too much money is that there is a chance he can a.) get injured due to old age, b.) go to prison, or c.) under-perform drastically. These are all risks a club on a budget can't afford to make, and most big spenders seem to not have the room to make a fit.

4.) Personality: There is certainly no guarantee that baseball's most volatile player will become a mentor to the youth in a new organization. Many young Giants players have had mixed results with Bonds as some have said over the years he was very helpful, and some have also felt intimidated by his lack of willingness to instruct and help the younger players. It would be interested if he would be willing to join an organization on the premise that a large part of his contribution will be facilitation between players.

Final Word: Barry Lamar Bonds is the greatest player ever. Granted that is a subjective statement, but I truly believe in its validity. Adding a personality like Barry to your organization can certainly come with its fair share of risk, but it also can provide some immense rewards. He certainly won't be the All-Star caliber player we have seen over his 20+ seasons in the Majors, but he can definitely contribute above or at the average Major League player level.

If I am an organization looking to add some legitimate offensive depth to my ball club I would look long and hard at Bonds. I would especially do so if I have no current prospects ready to take a LF/DH position for my club. Barry will be a guaranteed draw in 08 as he approaches the 3,000 hit mark, and can certainly provide bat in any Major League lineup.

Olney's Article:
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster

He Said, He Said

2008-02-21T15:24:00.000-08:00

This past week’s big news from Spring Training seems to be more about predictions than actual baseball played. If you haven’t heard, there have been verbal exchanges between 2007 NL MVP Jimmy Rollins and New York Met Carlos Beltran (not to mention in the latest news that Atlanta Brave Chipper Jones has gotten involved as well). My intention is to provide the comments made by these players, and compare it to the numbers and statistical outcomes we can expect this upcoming year.

Jimmy Rollins began this debacle when he first stated before the 07 season the following information:

“Do we have a good team? Yes. Do you think we're the team to beat in the East? Yes. Because of the excitement of the changes and the people (pitchers Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton among others) brought in this winter, that's how I feel. I think everybody else feels that way, but (we) just weren't saying it.”-Rollins

Rollins backed up his talk with stellar play elevating his career to a new level, and earning the MVP. However, not everyone took kindly to Rollins’s statements, and there was a response from inner division rivals.

Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets felt it was his place to step up as a vocal leader and criticize Rollins’s statements from a year ago in conjunction with Rollins’s statements about 08. Beltran had these words to say:

“Let me tell you this: Without Santana, we felt as a team we have a chance to win in our division. With him now, I have no doubt that we're going to win in our division. I have no doubt in that.”

“We've got what it takes. We have good chemistry as a team. He fits great because he's a great guy. He's one of the best pitchers in the game. Who doesn't want to have him on any ballclub? Without him last year we did good, until the end of the season. So this year, to Jimmy Rollins, we are the team to beat” –Beltran

Beltran is essentially calling Rollins out for predicting that the Phillies are still the team to beat in the NL East. Rollins didn’t degrade New York or Beltran as some would have expected, but rather responded by saying the following:

“The pressure is back on them, if you ask me," Rollins said. "They were on paper the best team in the division last year and were supposed to win and didn't so they're going to be out there trying to prove what happened last year was a fluke, that it's not going to happen again . . . The spotlight is not on us. New York is always supposed to be better than any other city in baseball - the fans expect that and the media expects that, so the team is going to feel the same way. So they're already under the microscope. You go out there and struggle, you'll hear it.”-Rollins

What it really comes down to is who has the point here, or whether or not we care. I think it was appropriate for Beltran to step up and become a vocal leader for the Mets. I don’t think you will ever find a player on a team that barely missed the playoffs the year before, and only improved in the off-season say that they don’t think they are the team to beat. Was it fair to attack Rollins, and single him out, probably not?

Statistically, these predictions are somewhat difficult to evaluate because we aren’t sure what difference the effect the acquisitions that these ball clubs made in the off-season will have on the 08 season. But hey, everybody loves a prediction.

Offensively:

New York Mets- The Mets ended the 07 campaign as the 10^th highest scoring team in the MLB with 804 runs. Their team OPS was .775 which is formidable considering they play a handful of games in a Pitcher’s park. Furthermore, they have a solid core of two young players in David Wright and Jose Reyes who seem to be improving each year. However, they do have some players who history would show may start to digress offensively in 08. Carlos Delgado has been bothered by injuries, and took a large step back in 07. Carlos Beltran has also been bothered by injuries, and if he plans to make statements similar to Rollins’s, he better elevate his game like Jimmy did. Schneider behind the plate is also an offensive downgrade from LoDuca, and Castillo as 2^nd surely holds some question marks.

Philadelphia Phillies- The Phillies were the 2^nd highest scoring team in the MLB posting 892 runs over the 162 games season. Their team OPS was a solid .812 for the season and .37 points higher than the Mets. What makes the Phillies the more likely team to maintain their offensive production is the fact that they play in an absolute bandbox of a stadium coupled with the notion that the core of their lineup is young and improving. Three of their four most productive players (Rollins, Utley, and Howard) are all under the age of 30, and another productive player, Pat Burrell is in a contract year. Coupled with the development of players such as Carlos Ruiz and Shane Victorino, Philadelphia looks poised to repeat as the NL leader in total offense.

Edge: Philles are more likely to repeat their 07 campaign and prove their status as a superior offense to the Mets

Defensively:

New York Mets: While there are plenty of statistics that can assist in analyzing defensive value I will keep it to a brief explanation. The Mets finished 07 ranked 18^th in the league with a .983 fielding percentage. As this statistic would show, they are a mediocre fielding team at best. The left side of their infield is solid, but the right side of their infield is horrible. Castillo and Delgado are one of the worst 1B/2B fielding tandems in the league. Beltran is a Gold-Glove CF when he is healthy and Alou and Church aren’t terrible at their positions. Schneider behind the plate is a definitive upgrade defensively over LoDuca. I think the Mets will see their errors shrink some, but I doubt that they will be able to crack the top 10 in fielding percentage in 08.

Philadelphia Phillies: Something I had no clue regarding was that the Phillies aren’t too bad of a fielding team. They ranked ties for 3^rd in 07 with a .986 fielding percentage. I knew they had a solid core up the middle with Ruiz, Rollins, Utley, and Rowand, but I was surprised to see them so high. The departure of Rowand means that Victorino will step in at the CF position which seems to be neither an upgrade or a loss. The addition of Pedro Feliz, who should have won the Gold Glove in 07 at 3B should only improve their ability to defend. Furthermore, Ryan Howard’s defensive progression should continue to improve at 1B.

Edge: There is no doubt the Phillies have a superior edge in this department.

Pitching:

New York Mets: The Mets certainly made the biggest splash this off-season in that department acquiring the greatest pitcher on this planet. He will provide the ultimate stability and dominance this rotation is lacking. They ranked 12^th in the league with a 3.26 ERA, and opponents batted .255 against them. This number should improve with Santana taking the ball for 200+ innings. However, the other pieces of this puzzle are somewhat questionable. Maine and Perez are wildcard in that they certainly performed higher than their statistical backgrounds have shown in the past. Pedro is and can be dominant, but he is coming off a surgery and we all know he is not the fire-baller he once was. With Orlando Hernandez bringing up the rear, this rotation needs to cross its fingers and pray nobody gets hurt. If I were Minaya I would consider acquiring another starter that could provide some depth in the case of injury. The bullpen will be solid, and you know you can expect Wagner to close down games for you.

Philadelphia Phillies: I am not a believer in anything they have going in Philly regarding pitching. They finished last year 23^rd in the league with a 4.73 ERA and opponents batted a solid .276 off of them. They haven’t added a single starter, except that the acquisition of Brad Lidge allowed Brett Myers to re-enter the rotation. Cole Hamels, the declared Ace, has amazing stuff, but his injury history is a large concern. Myers was sidelined last year with an awkward looking shoulder injury. Kyle Kendrick seemed to defy statistical odds, and actually posted good numbers. Moyer and Eaton do not belong in a contender’s rotation as far as I am concerned. The bull-pen is also sketchy in that Lidge still has suffered as a closer since the Albert Pujols incident. Gordon is washed up, and comes with an injury every year. They need to add some pitching depth because past Carlos Corrasco, their minor league system doesn’t have much promising youth.

Edge: Although both teams come with some serious risk, the New York Mets are anchored by one of the game’s greatest pitchers, and there is no arguing that they looked more poised to outperform Philadelphia’s staff in 08.

Conclusion: As far as I can tell, the Phillies still appear to be the better team. Their stars are in their primes, and they added some solid pieces to their puzzle this past year. They lack the frontline starter that the Mets certainly got in Johan Santana, but their offense should be able to bail some of the poor pitching performances their staff will turn in next season.According to my calculation they clearly are a better offensive and defensive team, while the edge in pitching goes to the Mets. I think the Mets are a solid team, and arguably one of the best in baseball, but Beltran called out the wrong team. Lastly, in the words of Jimmy Rollins:

“I guess two things come to mind," Rollins said. "One, there are four other teams in our division who are going to make sure [the Mets winning the division] doesn't happen. And two, has anyone ever heard of plagiarism?”

Links for more to read:

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20080221_Phillies_-_Phillies_Rollins_talks_fashion__style_and_plagiarism.html

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/columnist/bodley/2007-02-23-bodley-rollins_x.htm

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2008/02/17/2008-02-17_with_johan_santana_carlos_beltran_tells_.html

Part 2: Top 5 MLB Hitters/Positional Players Under 25

2008-02-18T21:54:00.000-08:00

The second part to the series published earlier this week is the best hitters/positional players in the Major Leagues under the age of 25. As with the pitching piece, there are specific criteria I have used to come to my conclusions:

Successful Tenure in the Major Leagues- The longer a player has been in the show, and proven he is a formidable player, the more likely he will receive a higher rank. It is much easier to judge actual performance than it is to predict the future.
Age- If two players are seemingly equal in talent and production, the player that is a year or two younger is obviously more valuable
Projectability- Although this contradicts the first principle, it is weighted as #3 because as said, it is much more difficult to predict the future than to analyze the past.
Relevant Stats- I don’t use AVG, RBI, Runs, etc, but rather more relevant stats contributed in the new era such as OPS+, Win Shares, OPS, and WARP to name a few. Any of those statistics can be explained at the following website: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/

Without further ado, I present to you my top 5 list of the best hitters in the Major Leagues under the age of 25…

1.) David Wright (24), 3B, New York Mets: To me, this ranking was the easiest on the list. According to Bill James’s similar list, Wright would have ranked #3 behind Prince Fielder and Hanley Ramirez, but I disagree on multiple accounts.

David Wright has been a steady producing Major Leaguer since his debut as a 21 year old in 2004. What makes Wright a clear cut #1 in my book is his tremendous offensive production is backed up by his above average defense at the hot corner. According to Bill James’s win shares, which show a player’s value both offensively and defensively, David Wright has averaged a 30 per season for his first 3 full seasons as a Major Leaguer. According to James, “generally, a 30 win share player is an MVP caliber player”. In that regard, Wright has had 3 consecutive “MVP caliber seasons as a 22, 23, and 24 year old. WOW.

Another aspect of Wright’s game is that he is steadily improving year after year. In his first 3 full seasons he has seen his OPS+ rise, his Win Shares rise, his WARP rise, and his OBP rise dramatically while remaining a fixture in the media driven New York market. The Mets collapse during the stretch run had nothing to do with Wright as he certainly elevated his game. Combined with another player featured in this top 5 list, Jose Reyes, New York is blessed to have an incredible left side of the infield for many years to come.

2.) Hanley Ramirez (23), SS, Florida Marlins: It makes me cringe to even write Hanley in as a SS because it seems inevitable he will be moved off the position. The two most likely destinations at this point seem to be 3B or CF, but with the addition of Cameron Maybin to Florida, I highly doubt he will take over CF. Defensively; Hanley posted one of the worst seasons ever seen at SS in 07. However, what he lacked defensively was seemingly made up with an amazing offensive season.

After a stunning Rookie of the Year campaign, Hanley surely didn’t disappoint with the bat in 07. Posting a godly OPS+ of 145 as a SS was absurd. In combination he has provided his team with a 25, and a 27 Win Share score his first two full seasons. His WARP jumped from a 7.5 in 06’ to an 8.9 in 07’. All these statistics point to the notion that Hanley’s value is undeniable to a Florida organization that continues to send away their best players. However, with the stadium agreement looking like a sure-thing, Florida fans may be able to rest assured that the next Superstar born in Florida will be sure to stay. I expect Hanley to continue his progression with the bat as a 23 year old in 08, but I remain guarded about his defensive skills as he is a liability if he does not move off SS.

3.) Jose Reyes (24), SS, New York Mets: Often regarded as one of the most electric players in baseball today, Jose Reyes is the complete player. He took a slight step back in 07, but he still remains one of the most complete young players in the game.

After breaking in as a 20 year old in 03, Reyes has sustained a productive Major League career thus far. After accumulating a 16 Win Share season in 05, Reyes rebounded and produced a 24 and a 26 Win Share season in 06, and 07. Hi WARP has been steady, and his OPS+ has been over 100 the past two years which is stellar for an above average fielding SS. Reyes is known for his blazing speed on the baseball field, and while speed is not a key component I value, Reyes speed is electric and hard to ignore. He is the reason the game is fun to watch, and I expect his 08 season to resemble his 06 season, if not better.

4.) Miguel Cabrera (24), 3B, Detroit Tigers: We often forget how young Cabrera really is because he is arguably one of the 5 best bats in the entire league, regardless of age. Since Miguel broke into the league as a 20 year old, winning a World Series, he has sustained himself as an incredible hitter.

I was tempted to put Miguel at #2 on this list, but like Hanley, Miguel’s future position is questionable. Many people have said he has gotten into great shape over the winter and trimmed some fat off his body. However, even if he gets into great shape, there is no guarantee he can improve his fielding at the hot corner which projects him to move to the OF where he will be no better, or 1B which is not a valuable position. Looking past the fielding you will see one of the most incredible hitters at his age we have ever seen. Bill James has his win shares since his first full season in 03-07 at: 19, 27, 33, 29. His OPS+ in those same years has been an astonishing: 106 (03), 130 (04), 151 (05), 159 (06), and 150 (07). Amazing. On top of that, Cabrera’s WARP has improved every year until this past year in which he dropped down from a 9.9 in 06 to a 9.2 in 07. I hate that his defense is atrocious because looking solely at his bat, Cabrera could challenge Wright as the best player on this list.

5.) Grady Sizemore (24), CF, Cleveland Indians: If the ladies love Grady then so do I. However, I love him for what he can do on a baseball field, not off. Grady broke into the Majors as a 21 year old in Cleveland and he has roamed CF at The Jake for the past 3 years.

What makes Grady special is that he is the complete player. His offensive skill set is one of the best for any CF currently in the Major Leagues, and his defense is certainly above average. His defense can sometimes be overrated as he makes the dramatic play, but his overall skill in CF is slightly above average. On offense, Grady is a special talent. Critics point to his high strikeout rates, but he has complimented his frequency of strikeouts by increasing his walks substantially in the last 4 years. Furthermore, Bill James has ranked his Win Shares from 05-07 seasons as follows: 24(05), 24(06), and 29(07). Obviously he has shown over the course of his tenure he is a consistent player making solid strides of improvement over the course of his career. His OPS+ has hovered around 130 in each of his three seasons while his WARP has also consistently improved. Grady is a special talent that Cleveland should be blessed to have manning CF for the next few years, and he is one more solid season away from solidifying himself as a Major League Superstar.

Honorable Mentions-

Now that the list has been completed, I have to give a brief explanation of why certain players got left off:

Prince Fielder (23), 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: It is hard to ignore a 23 year old that hits 50 HR’s in his 2^nd full year, but his position, and his length of success in the Major Leagues made me skeptical to include him on this list. He certainly could prove me WAY wrong next year, but I see about at 15% recession in Fielder’s overall production.

Troy Tulowitzki (22), SS, Colorado Rockies: It simply came down to the fact that Troy was a rookie and has shown he can do it for only one year. However, I do think he should have been the NL ROY for the fact that he proved much more valuable to his team over the course of the season. With that said, here comes my next Honorable Mention…

Ryan Braun (23), 3B, Milwaukee Brewers: Same as Tulo in the fact that he had ONE amazing year, and most of the other guys on the list have done it for multiple years. On top of that he is one of the worst fielding 3B we have ever seen. I’m sure Doug Melvin held his breath every time the ball was hit to the hot corner this past year.

Ryan Zimmerman (22), 3B, Washington Nationals: Zimm showed some promise in 06 posting absurd numbers for a 21 year old, but he seemed to hit a sophomore slump in his second full season. The move to a new park should allow his power production to increase, and he is one of the top defensive 3B in the league. However, at 24 and 20 Win Shares the past two seasons he just isn’t up there with these other guys.

Nick Markakis (23), OF, Baltimore Orioles: I threw Nick into the mix because I feel he is vastly overlooked in Baltimore. He won’t blow you away with amazing numbers, but he is one of the most solid young players we have in the game today. He has a solid bat posting over a 100 OPS+ in his first two seasons, and he is regarded as one of the top 5 defensive RF’s in the game today. He might not blow you away, but Nick definitely deserved consideration on this list.

Let the debate begin…

Part 1: Top 5 MLB Pitchers Under 25

2008-02-15T11:11:00.000-08:00

This is a two part series that I want to tackle. The first part, as you will see below, is a list of the top 5 pitchers in the Major Leagues under the age of 25. The next part will be the top 5 positional players under 25. The pitching list combines a few factors:

Length of successful tenure in the Majors- If a player has been up since he was 20 years old, and been effective for multiple years, that is certainly going to weigh more heavily than a player that may seem more talented, but proven less at the same level. It also matters the average level of competition these pitchers have faced over their careers.
Age- If two players are seemingly equal in talent and production, the player that is a year or two younger is obviously more valuable to their team.
Projectability- Although this contradicts the first principle, it is weighted as #3 because it is much more difficult to predict the future than to analyze the past.
Relevant Stats- I don't look at wins or losses, rarely use ERA, and other old school measurements. I typically use statistics such as K/9, H/9, BABIP, BB/9, ERA+, and other "new school" approaches to measuring a pitcher's true effectiveness.

Without further ado, I present to you my top 5 list of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues under the age of 25...

1.) Scott Kazmir (23), LHP, Tampa Bay Rays: It was a tough call here between my top 3 considering they are all immense talents. One of the deal breakers was that Kazmir happens to be a lefty, and he has proven to miss more bats than anyone else on the lists. After the Mets decided to trade Kazmir for the heralded Victor Zambrano, Scott has flourished in Tampa. After breaking into the league as a 20 year old, Kazmir has followed up with 3 amazing seasons in Tampa.

Although his 06 campaign was hampered by an injury, he has shown the ability to dominate in over 570 Major League innings. Over the course of his tenure, Scott has averaged 8.4 H/9, while striking out about 9.73 batters per 9 innings. With a mid 90's fastball, and a devastating slider, the only major roadblock to Kazmir's amazing career will be his health. However, all pitchers on this list are highly susceptible to injury, so I could not discredit Kazmir in that category. This young man will be a fixture of a formidable young rotation in Tampa Bay until 2010, unless of course they are forced to trade him knowing they will not be able to afford the monster contract he will demand.

2.) Justin Verlander (24), RHP, Detroit Tigers: Considered somewhat of a project after leaving Old Dominion, Verlander certainly had the tools scouts drool over. With a high 90's fastball, seen to touch 100 on many occasions, and a devastating curveball, Verlander was the choice at #2 because he has steadily improved since entering the league as a 22 year old in 05.

One of the major concerns with Verlander was his ability to control his plus pitches, and locate them effectively. In his first ML debut, an 11 inning stint in 05, he struggled to locate walking nearly 4 batter per 9 innings. However, in his first two full seasons he improved that mark to less than 3BB/9 while also improving his K/9 rate each year from 6K/9 (06) to 8.17K/9 (07). It seems that Verlander has gone through a maturation process as a young pitcher, and it looks very promising to the future of the Detroit organization. With the addition of Cabrear to one of the strongest lineups we have ever seen in baseball, Verlander has a legitimate shot to win the AL Cy Young as a 24 year old in 08.

3.) Matt Cain (23), RHP, San Francisco Giants: I know people will want to ridicule me for this pick, but as I noted above, I am more concerned with the peripheral stats than anything else. I feel sorry that Matt Cain does not get more recognition around the league because he is an amazing young talent stuck on a horrendous offensive team.

Since Cain came into the league as a 20 year old in 05, he has shown he can dominate Major League Hitters. A top HS draft choice, Cain rocketed through the Giants system as he succeeded at every level. What makes Cain special is his ability to limit opponents base hits. Over the course of 437 ML innings, he has allowed 7.29H/9 innings. That number is nearly an entire hit less than anyone else on this list (excluding Hamels at 7.98H/9 innings). Cain's only downfall comes with his inability to harness his control. He has a tendency to be wild, and struggle to locate all 4 of his pitches. Because of this, he also struggles to strike batters out at the same rate as some other arms. However, projecting his future, Cain is an absolute stud, and he will continue to develop into a top pitcher in the MLB in 08.

4.) Felix Hernandez (21), RHP, Seattle Mariners: "King Felix" as many have anointed him in Seattle is a pitcher I have a hard time understanding. He is certainly the youngest player on this list at 21, and he has had 2+ years of ML experience having debuted as a 19 year old. The problem with Felix is that his stuff is absolutely disgusting, and he seems to show glimpses of greatness, but it always comes in spurts. It is almost as if he can dominate when he wants to, but he doesn't always want to. I just don't get him.

With three plus pitches, including an overpowering fastball and nasty curveball, his potential to succeed in the Major Leagues seems limitless. However, an alarming analysis of his statistics shows that each year in the Majors, Felix has digressed. His H/9 are rising, while his K/9 are lowering each year. Since he is only 21, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt that he will turn it around because I haven't seen raw stuff better than his that I can remember. Bedard coming to Seattle could possibly motivate Felix to get his act together over an entire season, but it is yet to be seen. I always tag Felix as a guy to watch simply because his potential in undeniable.

5.) Fausto Carmona (23), RHP, Cleveland Indians: I was skeptical to put Carmona on this list simply because I think he over performed his potential last year, but a 23 year old that succeeds at the ML level over the course of the season deserves some serious consideration.

Carmona is your prototypical sinkerball pitcher with plus command of his stuff. He pitches to contact, rarely striking batters out 6.06K/9 innings, but he gets outs with his stuff. I was somewhat surprised to see Cleveland let him jump from 101 innings in 06, to 215 innings in 07. Tom Verducci at SI.com has an interesting piece up about the risk associated to Fausto's health with that type of jump in innings. To quote the respectable Bill James in his 2008 handbook: "He was the third young ground-ball pitcher to have a breakthrough season in the last 3 years, following Brandon Webb, and Chein-Ming Wang- and he was the best of the three in 07."

*While the 5 players presented are certainly debatable, I will provide a brief list of Honorable Mentions: Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Tom Gorzelanny, James Shields, Tim Lincecum, and Yovanni Gallardo.

Stay tuned, as the hitters version should be coming shortly...Let the debate begin.

Thank You Roger

2008-02-11T16:23:00.000-08:00

Let me start by saying that I am in the minority on this, but I do not believe steroids, HGH, or any other PED's (Performance Enhancing Drugs) make you substantially better at baseball. In my studies of the usage, I have yet to find one conclusive piece of evidence that shows a "direct" link to steroids and increased performance. Direct is a key word there because there is definitely a large amount of circumstantial evidence surrounding the issue. However, without further ado, I present today's thoughts:

If you couldn't tell by the above briefing, I am a fan of Barry Bonds. Complain all you want about his volatile personality, and his enormous ego, but you can't deny he was an amazing talent to watch on the field. That is why I think Roger Clemens for becoming involved in the recent allegations surrounding PED use in baseball.

Barry was America's scapegoat. He was viewed as a terrible teammate and person, and people outside of SF loved to hate him. Roger on the other hand was quite the contrary. While he certainly played with a passionate fire, rarely did people discuss him in the negative light they viewed Barry.

It is amazing how his name surfacing in the Mitchell Report Investigation diverted the baseball world's focus from Barry to Roger. These are arguably the two BEST players of the steroid era as they are calling it. The names surfacing around these allegations means a few things for me:

1. No longer can we point the finger at players we simply do not like
2. If Roger is guilty, who else is and just hasn't been caught?
3. If Roger gets into the hall of fame, so does Barry
4. If Roger's career is still recognized as greatness, then so should Barry's

Another important aspect about the whole situation regarding Clemen's is this; when he and MacNamee go to trial, and race their right hands and swear under oath to tell the truth, one of them will be lying. One of them will be committing a federal crime if their stories remain the same.

If Clemens continues to lobby with congressmen, pleading his innocence and follows that by going to trial and being proven a liar, he is going to look ridiculously stupid. Even if he denies the allegations at trial, but MacNamee's physical evidence proves Clemens was using he is going to look like an idiot.

I absolutely love Clemens, and I can appreciate the amazing athletic performances he has displayed over the course of his career, but if I were his attorney I would be advising him to take a back seat and let the process play out because if this gets thrown in his face he will be ridiculed in the grueling gauntlet that is the sportsworld.

Bedard: Safe Move at Safeco?

2008-02-08T18:11:00.000-08:00

The wait is over. Erik Bedard is now a Seattle Mariner. Seemed like this deal was inevitably going to happen, yet it definitely drug out much more than expected. If owner Peter Angelos was the reason this deal was held up, he certainly should rest assured that his side came out on top of the deal. Yea, I just said that.

Look, Erik Bedard is a dominant pitcher. Basically he and Johan Santana are in the rare mix of pitchers that can blow you away on any given night. The only difference between them is that Johan has shown he can consistently do it for 200+ innings, where as Bedard has struggled in that aspect. Although he looked like he was well on his way to surpassing the “200 inning mark”, Bedard pulled up lame toward the end of the year with an oblique strain, and he has already had Tommy John surgery.

If you are Bill Bavasi, regardless of the enormous pressure to win now, do you give up your best positional prospect in Adam Jones (also regarded as one of the top 10 best prospects in the game), and your best pitching prospect in Chris Tillman, along with some other nice pieces for an injury riddled dominant pitcher? Seattle’s fan base is obviously screaming YES!

I am on the other side, and if I was in the front office in Seattle would be whispering in Bill’s ear, “This deal is going to haunt us.” Yes I said it. This deal is going to haunt the Mariners. It is impossible, and risky by karma standards to predict a Bedard injury, so I’m not going to do that. I will say that I revel Bedard to an ice skater under the sun: eventually the ice is going to crack, and he is gonna fall in. What makes it worse is that the Mariners are going to have to watch Adam Jones flourish alongside one of the other great young outfielders in the game, Nick Markakis, in Camden Yards. Not to mention that if any other the other pieces of the puzzle put it together for the Orioles, and history says at least one will, I think Mariner fans will be crushed.

If Bedard is able to stay completely healthy for his 2 year tenure in Seattle, I expect great things. I would feel comfortable saying he will be the most dominant LHP in the AL, thanks in large part to the Great Johan’s departure. Safeco is very forgiving to pitchers as it ranks dead last with Oakland in runs scored at home from 2005-2007. On top of that, Bedard will have a solid outfield to compliment a gold glove caliber left side of the infield.

If I am Bill Bavasi, and I know I need to add another frontline starting pitcher to compliment the volatile, but young Felix Hernandez I look long and hard at this deal. Do I pull the trigger? Nope. Not for this deal. I can’t justify giving more for Bedard than the Mets got for Johan. This is especially the case when one of those players is a top 10 prospect in the game, and a personal favorite of mine. Maybe the Mariners will get 2 full 200+ inning season from Bedard, or maybe they won’t. If they make the playoffs, they will pose a serious threat in a short series, but they clearly aren’t the front runners in the AL West.

All in all, I wish Erik Bedard the best in Seattle, and Jones, Sherril, Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kameron Mickolio the best of luck in Baltimore. Hopefully the two teams get what they were looking for, and we see some competitive baseball result.

*Mariner fans be grateful I am not Bill Bavasi because I surely wouldn’t have made this happen*

Check out some others opinions on the deal:

Keith Law: http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3232377&name=law_keith

Ken Rosenthal:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7777230/After-long-process,-M's-finally-nab-Bedard

Baseballthinkfactory (w/ projections):

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/mariners_acquired_bedard/

Tristan Cockroft (Fantasy w/ video included):

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?id=3237443

Baltimore Sun:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-bedard208,0,7533190.story

MLB.com’s Jim Street:

http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080208&content_id=2368497&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea

New York, New York

2008-02-03T22:50:00.001-08:00

While it isn’t my passion to bring up other sports in my blog, Superbowl Sunday got me thinking; is it possible that New York Yankees could have learned a thing or two from those Superbowl Champion Giants? Let’s take a look at why that might not be such an unreasonable expectation.

New York Yankees:

With an immensely powerful offense, complimented by one of the finest baseball players we have ever seen in Alex Rodriguez, it is no surprise that this team is going to score runs. In 07, the Yankees scored 76 more runs than the next closest team (Phillies), and with little shuffling among their main offensive core, the same should be expected this year.

There are some progressions and regressions most likely to occur within this team. Jorge Posada’s amazing season is likely not to replicate. Rarely do we see 36 year old catchers improve on career years. Could it happen, certainly, but the likelihood that it does it dismal at best. Another potential regression the Yankees may face is with Alex Rodriguez. As noted earlier, he is arguably one of the best players in the game, but he is coming off an “amazing” season and approaching the first year (age 33) where offensive players tend to decline. Is this a guarantee, certainly not, as Alex is the consummate professional and prepares extensively to succeed each and every year. I wouldn’t expect much of a drop-off from any other position players or pitchers for that manner. With regressions there are also progressions to look forward to.

The Yankees can be very optimistic in looking toward the progression of their young players. Offensively, history would show that players like Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, and even Wilson Betemit will most likely improve on their seasonal performances. I personally expect Cano to have an amazing year, as he performed excellent after a slow start to 07. I am not a big fan of Melky, but he is young and moderately talented so we can expect some improvement. Betemit is just a favorite of mine for no particular reason.

What about the young Yankee arms? I think promising would be an understatement at this point. Joba Chamberlain, Phillip Hughes, and Ian Kennedy have shown that they can succeed at the Major League level, and I would expect an improvement on their performances. If any of these arms falter, there are plenty of arms within one of the stronger minor league systems to step up (Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez, etc.). I personally expect Phil Hughes to respond with a solid improvement as a starter, and I believe that the Yankees will limit Joba’s innings, by using him as a reliever in the first half, before unleashing his awe striking cannon as a starter in the second half. I know many Yankee fans think Joba will start, but he hasn’t shouldered a load of over 119 innings since pitching for the Cornhuskers at Nebraska. It would be safe for the Yanks to protect the electric arm that Joba possesses.

With that being said, these Yankees have a lot in common with those New York Giants who just won the Superbowl. This is a team that has dealt with its fair share of coaching controversy, ultimately leading to a change from Torre to Girardi. This is also an organization centered in an incredibly powerful market (NY), which is willing to do what it takes to win. Each and every year both of these teams are expected to reach the postseason, and succeed. There is a certain player (AROD and Eli) who seem to wear the “not-clutch” sticker straight on their foreheads. On top of that, both of these teams face a growing Boston dynasty. The list goes on… While many analysts are jumping off the Yankee train, and as much as it pains me to say this, I really like this team for 08.

The American League continues to get stronger and stronger, but the Yankees, behind heavy advocating from GM Brian Cashman, have started to figure out what it takes for them to succeed in the future: the right mix of homegrown talent and star studded veterans. This team will have a daunting task to succeed in 08 due to the competitive nature of the AL, but they are progressing as a team much more than they are regressing. Within that light, I predict success.

In combination with all the factors noted above, I expect the Yankees to finish atop the AL next year. I hate the idea of money buying championships, but this Yankee team is taking a different route than past champions. Look for this team to surprise people like their counterparts in the meadowlands, and potentially hoist their sports championship trophy.

Keith Law Releases Top 100 Prospects

2008-02-01T12:44:00.000-08:00

Keith Law is a highly respected analyst for ESPN. Yesterday he released his top 100 prospects for this upcoming season. This list can be found at the following link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3221365

While I will analyze the placement of certain players, it is important to note a few things about Keith Law's style.

1. He doesn't use other people's rankings and scouting reports to judge prospects. Instead he relies on his personal scouting reports he has compiled of players so this is HIS personal list.

2. Certain players who may seem to be prospects technically do not qualify. The limitations for Hitters are 130 AB's at the Major League Level, and 50 IP at the Major League level for Pitchers.

With that being said, it is time to take a lot at some rankings that I personally disagree with. I am only sharing my disagreements with players I think are more than 10 spots higher/lower than I would have predicted. The number in parentheses is Keith Law's ranking of the prospect:

11) Desmond Jennings, OF/Tampa Bay Rays

I think Desmond at #11 is a stretch. I absolutely love the Ray’s current system with the plethora of young talent they have, but I just not a believer in Jenning’s ceiling being that high. Speed is amazing, but he is a raw project that succeeded at a lower level (Low A Columbus), and it is hard to rank a prospect that high if he has yet to test the upper levels of the minors. Often does it seem that speed is valued much too highly. I do think Jenning’s will be an above average player based on skill set alone, but I have my doubts that he will reach the lofty comparisons associated with him so far. I would personally rank Desmond in the late 20’s to early 30’s range.

(32) Geovany Soto, C/Chicago Cubs

Cubs fans beware. Rarely does a player break out as strong as Soto did in the 07 campaign. In two previous years he saw his OPS rise from .700 in 05 to .734 in 06. However, in 07 his OPS rose to over .1000. That is a pretty drastic rise, and I wouldn’t expect that kind of production to transfer over at the Major League level. He deserves to be on these lists due to the fact he will get substantial playing time in 08, but as far as future production I would have put him in the lower half of my top 100, somewhere around 65-75.

(33) Jason Heyward, CF/RF Atlanta Braves

I haven’t had the opportunity to see Heyward live, but if you watch video on him you know he is going to be special. This is my favorite player taken in last year’s draft, and I am appalled that he slipped to the Braves at 14. With that being said, I think he will fill out more, although he already looks like a man, and get pushed out of CF to a corner OF spot like RF because he has an above-average arm based on scouting reports. Heyward biggest calling will certainly be his bat, and if he develops as I predict, I think we are looking at a perennial slugger who can easily put 30+ balls out a year. If I had the opportunity to rank him, he would fall somewhere in the 10-15 range, and after a full season in the Minors, I’d expect to see him in the top 10. Love this kid.

(47) Mike Moustakas, SS/Kansas City Royals

Another player I have only seen video on, but I’m leaning toward the star wagon rather than the flop wagon. I think he has great tools, and will profile as a middle-of-the-order bat in KC. I do agree with Law that there was a lot of added hype around him because he hit 97 off the mound, but do you really care if he doesn’t ever take the mound for your franchise? I think Keith sold him a little short, and if you want to hear an analyst who loves him, jump over to Baseball America and read Jim Callis’s thoughts on the young guy. I would have ranked him in my top 20.

(51) Ross Detwiler, LHP/Washington Nationals

There seems to be no love for the Missouri State pitcher. I understand he is wiry, and that scares a lot of people away from predicting a successful career, but there has to be something said for a player that rockets through the minors and debuts at the Major League level in his first year. Yes I know the Nationals are terrible, and he was in the right system to be brought up, but I can’t say anything more than I love the way he throws. He is cocky and attacks hitters with powerful stuff. If he can develop a solid change-up to go along with his average slider and above average fastball, I think Detwiler could prove a lot of people wrong for selling him short. I would put Detwiler around 25 if I was writing a list.

(70) Ian Stewart, 3B/Colorado Rockies

I think Stewart has dropped in the minds of some of baseball analysts because he has been stagnant after showing much promise at A-ball in Asheville. I’m not ready to jump off the bus yet. I like his tools, and I certainly think Colorado has affected his development by entrenching Garret Atkins in front of him. It is never good for a young hitter to be asked to change positions to a position he most likely can’t play (2B), and expect him to accept it after having successful seasons in the Minors. I still think Stewart will eventually be the middle-of-the-order bat everyone once expected him to be, and I am willing to wait and see. I would easily feel comfortable putting Stewart in my top 30, and I expect him to perform well at the Major League level.

(91) Tyler Robertson, LHP/Minnesota Twins

I like him, and I have seen him plenty being from the same area as him. The kid has talent, and his Professional numbers are quite impressive. I am a big fan of player that average more than a K per inning while walking less than 3 per 9 innings. Robertson fits the bill, and he has all the right tools: tall, length, composure, and a solid baseball background. I don’t think he is an elite prospect, but I certainly feel like he is worth consideration for an early 60’s ranking.

So there it goes. A few differences, but there I am a strong advocate for supporting Keith Law. I find it highly respectable that he ignores other’s reports and lists, and goes simply by what he sees. However, there is some fault to that in that he can sometimes see a prospect on a rough day. For example, Law recently was quoted as saying he saw Gio Gonzales pitch around 84-88 when in fact most scouting reports have his fastball sitting in the low 90’s. Either way, I enjoyed reading his list, and I think he is pretty accurate with his rankings.

Let the debate begin…

Johan Santana: Boom or Bust?

2008-01-30T17:01:00.001-08:00

Johan Santana clearly provides an added boost to a Mets rotation that was struggling for a front line Starting Pitcher. However, there are clearly some aspects of the deal that can be critically analyzed in hopes of understanding just how effective this deal really was.

#1: Money
Isn't it always about the money? In the case of the Mets, not exactly. Moving to the New York market is a blessing for Johan. He has amazing influence during the contract negotiations because there is no way the Mets can let this deal slip through their hands. Omar Minaya would be crucified by the fan base if the deal broke down due to financial constraints. If I'm Santana and his agent, I'm looking at roughly 6-7 years and 130-150 million dollars. If I'm a Met fan, I'm relieved I live in such a large market that will easily absorb that salary.
Bottom Line: Money will not be a constraint now or in the future regarding this deal

#2: Age
Born March 13, 1979 Johan will not turn 30 until the 2009 season. If he seemingly receives a deal in the 5-7 year range, the Mets will be free of his contract by the time he turns 36, at worst. However, there is often a large debate on what years are a pitcher's peak years? Some may argue that the 1,651 career innings he has logged between the minor leagues and the majors may have an adverse effect on his arm, but the consensus seems to be that he will be just fine. I personally think, as with any young pitcher, there is such high risk to rewarding a young proven pitcher with this many years. Some names that come to mind Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, and Barry Zito. If you are a Mets fan, names like that make you flinch. This is an issue we will only be able to judge as time passes.
Bottom Line: Locking up the game's best pitcher before he turns 30 has a sketchy past, but if there was anyone that deserved it, Johan Santana definitely does. Good call.

#3: Prospects Involved
This is somewhat debatable as many different sources have differing opinions on the matter. For example, Baseball America sees the Twins receiving the Met's #2 (Deolis Guerra), #3 (Carlos Gomez), #4 (Kevin Mulvey), and #7 (Phillip Humber) best prospects. Another respected analyst, Keith Law from ESPN, sees the movement as making Gomez the Twin's new #1 prospect, with Guerra following at #2, and (Humber) being the only remaining player to crack the top 5 at #5. According to these two perspectives, these are somewhat legitimate prospects. However, if I am the Twins, and I am trading the games best pitcher, I WANT MORE. There is no way I would have done this deal unless Met's #1 prospect Fernando Martinez was involved. Not when the likes of Yankees Phillip Hughes, Red Sox's Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury have been involved in discussions. NO WAY! To me this is a classic quantity of "potential high upside" players vs. quality. In defense of the Twins, the haul they received for Johan (4 top 10 prospects) was much better than the 2 draft picks they would have received as compensation if he walked as a free agent. However, I still think the Mets walked away with a steal considering they keep their #1 prospect, get the games BEST pitcher, and also have (2) picks in the first 20 selections in this years upcoming draft. Can anyone say instant replenish to a thinned-out organization?
Bottom Line: The Twins used Johan as an organization hole filler when he should have brought in at least 1 prospect expected to be above average at the Major League level. Borderline robbery by the Mets.

#4: Performance: Last, but not least is the expected performance. While I will stay away from the prospects performance, due to the lack of a guaranteed entrance into the majors, lets solely look at Johan. As ESPN has been showing, over the last 3 years, Johan has dominated the Major Leagues. He has led in strikeouts, innings pitched, and ERA. Simply amazing. He is the most dominant force in the Major Leagues and there is no reason to think he will not continue to succeed as he transfers over to the much "inferior" league that is the NL. Facing the Pitcher, along with many statistically inferior lineups should help the game's most dominant pitcher continue to blow batters away. Here are some projections from some highly respected statisticians.

Bill James 08 Predictions:
IP H BB SO W L ERA
216 174 57 228 16 8 3.00

*Note: This is before he was traded to the Mets, and I feel confident to predict that his wins will rise, his IP will rise slightly meaning hits, walks, and strikeouts will raise accordingly. One change I could see is his ERA taking a slight dip under 3.00, but nothing too drastic.

Dan Szymborski ZiPS Projections for 08:
IP H BB SO W L ERA
234 192 46 244 18 8 3.04

Bottom Line: Contrasting between the two predictions, and I think it is beneficial that one is pre-trade and one is post-trade, you can see that there will be no hindrance to Santana's overall production. I agree with these predictions in that I think he is close to a sure thing for the NL Cy Young (barring injury of course).

In conclusion, I think the Mets made a great move to acquire the games best pitcher. In my opinion they did not give up great talent, but rather a few prospects that will surely make it to the big leagues, but won't ever necessarily be the superstar Johan is. My only caution to fans who see this deal and guarantee the NL East is won is be careful. You have 2 young pitchers on your staff (Perez and Maine) who were lucky to win 15 games last year. When I say lucky I don't mean it in a derogatory manner, but they definitely outperformed their previous career lines.

If I was the Mets I would be extremely proud of Omar Minaya and the organization for jumping on an opportunity to snatch up the games best pitcher at a fraction of the cost the market was demanding in previous weeks.